[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

Tue Apr 7 20:07:13 EDT 2020

> Steve,
>
>  
>
> Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,
>

> “Can we eliminate community transfer?” 
>
By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of
infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people
each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential
growth) below 1.0... 

> and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain
> in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact
> tracing and isolation is assured?”
>
I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very
important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In
principle,  keeping

>  Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are
> still going exponential. 
>
Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States
continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a
tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and
"enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big
cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple
urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more
quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and
deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue
States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first
wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other
direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few
years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization
of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop
of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow
@POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between
Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

>  
>
> Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and
> conduct an election during this mess.
>
I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and
their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds
against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be
cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an
insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early
voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how
refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.)
will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat
primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some
of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more
controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by
then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there
will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

>  
>
> N
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>  
>
>  
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave
>
>  
>
> SG
>
> I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this
> and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big
> siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.
>
>  
>
> Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way
> through it now in the background.
>
>  
>
> SS
>
>      
>
>     I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
>      
>     https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 
>
>     The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing
>     will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price
>     is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in
>     what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from
>     epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public
>     health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI
>     community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops”
>     that will be convened to address this crisis.
>
>     Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of
>     Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory
>     Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv
>     Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen
>     Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 
>
>
>     _______________________________________________________________________
>     Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
>
>     CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com <http://www.simtable.com/>
>
>     1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
>     office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828
>
>     twitter: @simtable
>
>     zoom.com/j/5055775828 <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>
>
>
>
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