[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
Steven A Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Apr 8 01:53:18 EDT 2020
> Steve,
>
>
>
> I like your long wind.
>
>
>
> I am grateful for your attempt to imagine a world in the interim
> between the wave and the vaccine.
>
In the world pre-vaccine (including among wild animal populations), the
only thing keeping a disease from extincting a population IS a
combination of herd-immunity through antibody formation and death
itself. Highly deadly things like Ebola burn out because they kill
nearly everyone who contracts it, leaving nobody in the village to
re-infect. Entire populations can get wiped out in the wild... (early
2000s, the magpies on the Rio Grande were decimated and are only just
now starting to return)
Our modern hyper-mixing (travel at many scales yielding contact graphs
at many scales) really aggravates disease spread cum epidemic cum pandemic.
>
>
> Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the
> are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?
>
I doubt it... and your reference to a "fire" analogy is apt... the
sparks are more likely coming from smoldering areas *within*... catching
flame in a wind and tosssing sparks into the next unburned patch...
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:38 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick -
>
> I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the
> most succinct version I can:
>
>
>
> I think you are nearly correct.
>
>
>
> First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our
> ignorance... but it is a critical threshold. As soon as you have one
> case you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you
> have more, and for each of those, you will have yet more... so it
> isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...
>
>
>
> Second: The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the
> average number of people to be infected by a given infected person.
> This is what is called R0. As people get infected and recover and
> therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible
> individuals in the population goes down, and the R0 with it. If you
> encounter 10 people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of
> infecting them but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes
> 10*.2/2 = 1.0 ! When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth
> flattens to linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying
> out. A widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of
> having to become infected, survive, and recover.
>
>
>
> In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally,
> augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of
> social distancing to keep R0 down. As we learn more about the modes
> of transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and
> possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is
> significant social distancing. Meanwhile, more severe social
> distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with
> conditions known to go badly with COVID19). We will see properly
> vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm
> prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of people
> needing hospitalization as well as mortality. And lastly,
> antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the more at-risk or
> critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine.
>
>
>
> Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or
> possibly the nuclear family unit. In principle, once we believe we
> have isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and
> sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected
> asymptomatically but recovered. This might mean, for example, that
> if you and your wife and your children and their children have all
> remained separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with
> them as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population.
>
>
>
> But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside
> the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space". The larger
> the (extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it
> into the group unexpectedly.
>
>
>
> So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so
> will casino gambling, church attendance, public transit, etc. I
> believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers
> are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the
> staff is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often. Airlines
> will probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon. Churches
> and maybe sporting events, and theater as well. But probably not for
> (many?) months...
>
>
>
> I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in
> the backs of seats... we will probably remember fondly when seats
> were packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask
> "grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor between the
> seats? People didn't *really* sit so close did they? Don't they know
> that isn't safe?" and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the
> old pictures?".
>
>
>
> Hope this helps a little?
>
>
>
> - Steve
>
> Steve (Smith),
>
>
>
> I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of
> those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance. If we were
> unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance
> of “community transmission”. Am I wrong about that?
>
>
>
> So, community transmission is just the residue after we have
> failed at contact tracing. My assumption is that until we have a
> vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make
> rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible. In other
> words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social
> isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted
> can be isolated for two weeks. Such a policy might permit the
> reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re
> opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food
> stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment
> venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars,
> festivals, large scale air travel, and other activities that we
> think of when we think of “tourism”.
>
>
>
> I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the
> fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point.
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Steve,
>
>
>
> Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday. I guess the
> questions are,
>
>
>
>
> “Can we eliminate community transfer?”
>
> By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the
> *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?
>
> The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of
> people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the
> exponential growth) below 1.0...
>
> and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to
> maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing,
> vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”
>
> I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very
> important... but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.
> In principle, keeping
>
>
>
> Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states
> are still going exponential.
>
> Re: Balkanization
>
> I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red
> States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the
> price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population
> densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns... compared
> for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing
> commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.
>
> And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves
> more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban
> landscapes.
>
> In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections
> and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity. So
> Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during
> the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them
> the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to
> be crypto-infected?
>
> I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a
> few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid
> dehumanization of "the other"... a "friend" can become a
> "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in
> this case)? Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by
> tweet"? then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and
> Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?
>
>
>
> Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we
> arrange and conduct an election during this mess.
>
> I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one.
> FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already
> making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican;
> B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course). I
> don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by
> mail). Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee
> ballots.
>
> The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how
> refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail,
> etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm hoping that the
> remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a
> lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main
> elections which will be much more controversial.
>
> I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on
> things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I
> can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in
> all venues.
>
> - STeve
>
>
>
>
>
> N
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave
>
>
>
> SG
>
> I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?)
> this and thought you had just linked those! I'm glad to see
> our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.
>
>
>
> Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation? I'm working
> my way through it now in the background.
>
>
>
> SS
>
>
>
> I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
>
> https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic
>
> The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social
> distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after
> far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under
> what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine?
> On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics
> discussed strategies for both public health and economic
> recovery and answered questions from the SFI community.
> This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that
> will be convened to address this crisis.
>
> Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology,
> University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los
> Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan
> School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics,
> Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl,
> Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation
>
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
> Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com
> <mailto:stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
>
> CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com
> <http://www.simtable.com/>
>
> 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828
>
> twitter: @simtable
>
> zoom.com/j/5055775828 <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>
>
>
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6 https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
>
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
>
>
> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>
> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
>
> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>
> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200407/fa6fb832/attachment.html>
More information about the Friam
mailing list