[FRIAM] climate change questions
Steven A Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Jan 1 14:58:51 EST 2020
See the Medea Hypothesis
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis>vs the Gaia
Hypothesis <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis> vs the
Fermi Paradox
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_others>
(as another way to avoid/stall responding to the Climate Crisis OR
the Chinese Hoax, depending on your preferred sociopolitical
attractor) <tongue-in-cheek>.
On 1/1/20 12:50 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> This is the position that humanity is an infection causing the Earth
> to suffer, right?
>
> -----------------------------------
> Frank Wimberly
>
> My memoir:
> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
>
> My scientific publications:
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
>
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 12:45 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com
> <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>
> It seems to me the solution is to do nothing. The world has to
> become relatively toxic and inhospitable. Then people will be
> unable or unwilling to reproduce, the population will drop, and
> the earth can heal.
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> on behalf of doug carmichael
> <doug at dougcarmichael.com <mailto:doug at dougcarmichael.com>>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:37 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
>
> Let’s say we are able to bring the price of solar generated
> electricity below that of electricity generated by fossil fuels.
> This leaves several important questions:
>
>
> Who pays for replacing the gas heater with an electric heater?
> That includes installation and remodeling costs as well as the
> cost for the device. The energy companies will work hard to make
> sure we generate that electricity with oil and gas - and more coal
> than we want to acknowledge. The number of new electric heaters
> that would have to be manufactured is on the order of 50-100
> million for the US, and what of half the world that still cooks
> on open fires? Such manufacturing is going to produce more
> pollution and use even more energy. It requires old technologies
> of mining the minerals and producing the plastics that go into the
> manufacturing these units, as well as their transportation from
> mine to factory, and from the factory to homes.
>
>
> doug
>
>> On Jan 1, 2020, at 11:26 AM, Prof David West
>> <profwest at fastmail.fm <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> forgive me, but "it is clear" implies that there is no other
>> alternative. I don't believe that because I have read myriad ways
>> of remediating the consequences of that use. Those alternatives
>> are expensive, but more expensive than the social and economic
>> consequences of ending fossil fuels?
>>
>> If the only solution is one that will not be utilized, do we
>> simply resign ourselves to the inevitable?
>>
>> davew
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:16 PM, Douglass Carmichael wrote:
>>> We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2, it is
>>> clear that we must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there
>>> is no existing politics todo it because it mans loss of jobs,
>>> failures of mortgages, collapse of banks - and starvation. And
>>> this is Implies that we must move toward powerful
>>> centralization and decentralization at the same time.
>>>
>>>
>>> doug
>>>
>>>> On Jan 1, 2020, at 10:55 AM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>>>> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>>>> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Friammers:
>>>>
>>>> Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The
>>>> jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise
>>>> we remain a hung jury.
>>>>
>>>> So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea
>>>> level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other
>>>> changes are happening”?
>>>>
>>>> If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for
>>>> causing those changes?
>>>>
>>>> I am polling the jury.
>>>>
>>>> Nick
>>>>
>>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>>> Clark University
>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
>>>> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
>>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM
>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>>>> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>>>>
>>>> From NASA:
>>>> https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -----------------------------------
>>>> Frank Wimberly
>>>>
>>>> My memoir:
>>>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
>>>>
>>>> My scientific publications:
>>>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
>>>>
>>>> Phone (505) 670-9918
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly
>>>> <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>> What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the
>>>>> tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have
>>>>> no references.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Frank
>>>>>
>>>>> -----------------------------------
>>>>> Frank Wimberly
>>>>>
>>>>> My memoir:
>>>>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
>>>>>
>>>>> My scientific publications:
>>>>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
>>>>>
>>>>> Phone (505) 670-9918
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>>>>> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>>> Dave,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should
>>>>>> take them as a
>>>>>> challenge.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What can we-all, we who have long association, and a
>>>>>> generalized (if
>>>>>> somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to
>>>>>> climate change
>>>>>> and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by
>>>>>> what rules of
>>>>>> engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that
>>>>>> matter. Because,
>>>>>> if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would
>>>>>> seem to be beyond
>>>>>> human reach.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your
>>>>>> facts as
>>>>>> stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things
>>>>>> are) are not as
>>>>>> bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined
>>>>>> to believe
>>>>>> that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel
>>>>>> I have been
>>>>>> exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial
>>>>>> melting. But even
>>>>>> there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific
>>>>>> references to any of
>>>>>> my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I
>>>>>> don't know what I
>>>>>> am talking about. Ugh!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following
>>>>>> concern: what
>>>>>> we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term
>>>>>> climate warming,
>>>>>> is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can
>>>>>> grow rape seed in
>>>>>> Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the
>>>>>> bands of climate
>>>>>> supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens
>>>>>> if one year
>>>>>> the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the
>>>>>> switch from
>>>>>> one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who
>>>>>> plants a garden
>>>>>> knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the
>>>>>> productivity of
>>>>>> your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost
>>>>>> free period in
>>>>>> my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it
>>>>>> is as short as
>>>>>> 90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have
>>>>>> had last frost
>>>>>> dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It
>>>>>> would take a
>>>>>> very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my
>>>>>> garden from
>>>>>> something that could support life for a year in New England
>>>>>> into a 30 x 50
>>>>>> wasteplot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I think I could show you that the period in which we live,
>>>>>> the Holocene, is
>>>>>> a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in
>>>>>> climate VARIABILITY.
>>>>>> I think I could convince you that everything that has
>>>>>> occurred in the last
>>>>>> ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely
>>>>>> dependent on that
>>>>>> anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do
>>>>>> agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit
>>>>>> it. The whole
>>>>>> idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make
>>>>>> more or less the
>>>>>> same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place
>>>>>> and doing more
>>>>>> or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year
>>>>>> variation
>>>>>> would obliterate that possibility.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global
>>>>>> Warming-- we
>>>>>> are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God,
>>>>>> I think I could
>>>>>> scare the Living Crap out of you.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The only question is whether we have the energy and
>>>>>> sitzfleisch to do it,
>>>>>> and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's
>>>>>> value could be
>>>>>> harvested for the long run.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Happy New Year!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nick
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>>>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>>>>> Clark University
>>>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>>>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
>>>>>> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM
>>>>>> To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
>>>>>> Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the
>>>>>> reality of climate
>>>>>> change.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated
>>>>>> that because
>>>>>> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an
>>>>>> average of 3 degrees
>>>>>> Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an
>>>>>> average of 6 degrees
>>>>>> Fahrenheit by 2020.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of
>>>>>> temperature
>>>>>> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely
>>>>>> expectations
>>>>>> being 3-5 by the year 2020.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA
>>>>>> predicted the end of
>>>>>> domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020
>>>>>> is 1 degree.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and
>>>>>> accurate,
>>>>>> argument for the need to address climate change in the
>>>>>> context of badly
>>>>>> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available
>>>>>> scientific models, and
>>>>>> over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with
>>>>>> political or
>>>>>> simply "circulation" motives.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to
>>>>>> tar everyone
>>>>>> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models
>>>>>> or the proposed
>>>>>> "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating
>>>>>> coal to carbon
>>>>>> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios,
>>>>>> human
>>>>>> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess;
>>>>>> and if so, how
>>>>>> do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will
>>>>>> optimize our
>>>>>> chances?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> davew
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ============================================================
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>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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>>> ============================================================
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>>
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>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> ============================================================
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
>
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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