[FRIAM] climate change questions

[Merle Lefkoff]

Steven Smith and Stephen Guerin were two of the complex systems scientists
our organization (The Center for Emergent Diplomacy) invited to join a
conference we organized in Stockholm a few weeks ago--combining our guys
with our Swedish network of scientists and policy wonks working seriously
on climate emergency.  My idea was that the deep dialogue on global warming
that I experience (and sometimes facilitate) happening around the world
everywhere but here in the U.S--could really benefit from a Complexity
spin. Steve and Stephen are somewhat up-to-date, and you might get some
interesting replies from them.

By the way--all the major government reports, including the UN IPCC
reports, are heavily censored because of how the research is funded.  There
is tremendous pressure to present only best-case scenarios-- for obvious
corporate reasons.  Also, if any of you think the disaster scenarios are
"over-hyped", you really don't have a clue.  Yes, the future is
unprestateable, but many parts of the world are already experiencing the
future of global warming in the present, like a good science fiction
story.  And there is a rapidly growing scientific consensus about how
quickly the window is closing on any attempts to contain the risk to human
survival on a much-altered planet.

On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 8:45 AM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm> wrote:

> Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate
> change.
>
> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because
> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3
> degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6
> degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.
>
> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations
> being 3-5 by the year 2020.
>
> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
>
> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end
> of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
>
> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.
>
> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
> argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly
> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models,
> and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or
> simply "circulation" motives.
>
> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone
> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
>
> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the
> proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
>
> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon
> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human
> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
>
> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so,
> how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our
> chances?
>
> davew
>
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-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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