[FRIAM] The Covid Game

[Roger Critchlow]

Pretty horrible.

But the real horror was
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/
which
made me wonder how asymptomatic the asymptomatic infections really are.
Like the early report of 3 scuba divers in Austria who self-isolated
through mild cases and then found out that their lungs were no longer
suitable for diving.  So there may be Recovery branches under the
Asymptomatic and Moderate Illness branches of the game, with possible never
recovered CON penalties on their tail ends.  We'll find out when people
start going back to the doctor for checkups, or having trouble shaking the
flu.

And have we actually decided that asymptomatic is anything but a variable
length precursor to Moderate or Serious Illness?  I thought that was still
an open question.

-- rec --

On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 9:33 AM Eric Charles <eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hey, thought many of you might get a kick out of this (or be horrified...
> or both).
>
> [image: The Covid Game.jpg]
>
> Note that it starts with someone who is for sure infected, and the
> footnote states it is within 1.5% accuracy for people ages 20 to 89.
>
> So far as I can trace it back, I think the author is a guy named Clay
> Dreslough. He posted it with the following guide a guide to help non-gamers
> (and the guide assumes people don't own a 100 sided die... which is weird
> ;- ):
>
> For non-nerds:
>
> The number before the 'd' is the number of dice you roll, the number after
> is the number of sides on the die. For example, 2d6 = roll two 6-sided dice
> and add them together, giving you a possible range of 2-12. In the
> 'Asymptomatic' box, there is an additional step in the formula, where you
> subtract a number. For example, the 'Mask' roll is 2d6-8, meaning roll two
> 6-sided dice and subtract eight, giving you a range of 0-4 for the number
> of people you infect while wearing a mask (results below zero are treated
> as zero — you can't infect a negative number of people).
>
> A d100 roll refers to taking two 10-sided dice, and designating one as
> your tens unit, one as your ones unit. The example in the upper right of
> the graphic shows a 3 and a 7, which becomes 37. Rolling two 0s yields 100,
> not 00.
>
> So, all the places where it asks for d100 + your age, you'll do just that.
> For me, being 49, this gives me a random number from 50 to 149. I then find
> the arrow matching my roll and follow it to the next box.
>
> Finally, CON refers to your "Constitution" stat in Dungeons & Dragons — a
> general measure of your physical health and endurance. The average person
> has a CON of 10. An olympic athlete has a CON around 18.
>
> Note that while the fatality rates are pretty accurate for current CDC
> data, there's really no data on "permanent damage" (in the same way that,
> 19+ years later, we are still arguing about the number of soldiers
> suffering from Gulf War Syndrome and the number of first responders
> sickened by 9/11). And of course the medical community doesn't define "a
> point of constitution", so that's just a guess. But I know more than one
> person that's "recovered" and are still incapacitated to some degree.
>
> -----------
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
> American University - Adjunct Instructor
> <echarles at american.edu>
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