[FRIAM] The Covid Game

Sat Jul 4 13:26:03 EDT 2020

Huh... so... there are a few ways to deal with that I guess.... which gets
us back to the issue of who gets to decide "asymptomatic" (the patient or
the doctor) - because "has permanent lesions in their lungs" sure seems
like something a doctor would consider "a symptom"....

I guess, either way, we could just add a small chance that
"asymptomatic" people develop permanent damage.

-----------
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
American University - Adjunct Instructor
<echarles at american.edu>

On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 12:26 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:

> Eric --
>
> There's this from June 23,
> https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/23/864536258/we-still-dont-fully-understand-the-label-asymptomatic
>
> The findings are consistent with several studies following asymptomatic
>> patients in China, which have found that many can
>> <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/> develop lesions
>> in the lungs despite having no outward symptoms, says Dr. Jennifer
>> Taylor-Cousar
>> <https://www.nationaljewish.org/doctors-departments/providers/physicians/jennifer-l-taylor-cousar>,
>> a pulmonologist at National Jewish Health in Denver not involved with the
>> paper. "It probably is, at least in this disease, pretty common," she says.
>
>
> There are purely asymptomatic cases which do not progress, but we're still
> figuring out how many there are, and how many of them have lesions, and
> what the consequences of the lesions might be.
>
> -- rec --
>
> On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 10:56 AM Eric Charles <
> eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Roger,
>> Given that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is still likely a
>> small fraction of the number of actual infections... and infected
>> youngsters are still showing infinitesimal risk several months after the
>> outbreak started... I think "asymptomatic" directly to "recovered" seems
>> very plausible. The real problem when discussing "asymptomatic" is that
>> there is a huge difference between a dude who would say "no symptoms here,
>> I'm fine" and a person a doctor would thoroughly examine and declare to
>> have no symptoms. So "asymptomatic" should really be understood as "cases
>> that don't bother people more than whatever normal crap they deal with" or
>> something like that.
>>
>> You're certainly right though that permanent damage is a big concern and
>> a big unknown. I think the chart estimates are probably not bad, but we
>> won't know for a long time: For the "moderate cases", 2d4 damage but you
>> only recover 6, is a 19% chance of permanent damage, which is unlikely to
>> make you very disabled. For the "severe" cases, 2d6 damage and you only
>> recover 6, is a 50% of permanent damage, and a lot of possibility that you
>> will be much worse off afterwards. (And, of course, it depends on the
>> constitution level you start with.)
>>
>> -----------
>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>> <echarles at american.edu>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 1:39 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>
>>> Pretty horrible.
>>>
>>> But the real horror was
>>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/ which
>>> made me wonder how asymptomatic the asymptomatic infections really are.
>>> Like the early report of 3 scuba divers in Austria who self-isolated
>>> through mild cases and then found out that their lungs were no longer
>>> suitable for diving.  So there may be Recovery branches under the
>>> Asymptomatic and Moderate Illness branches of the game, with possible never
>>> recovered CON penalties on their tail ends.  We'll find out when people
>>> start going back to the doctor for checkups, or having trouble shaking the
>>> flu.
>>>
>>> And have we actually decided that asymptomatic is anything but a
>>> variable length precursor to Moderate or Serious Illness?  I thought that
>>> was still an open question.
>>>
>>> -- rec --
>>>
>>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 9:33 AM Eric Charles <
>>> eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hey, thought many of you might get a kick out of this (or be
>>>> horrified... or both).
>>>>
>>>> [image: The Covid Game.jpg]
>>>>
>>>> Note that it starts with someone who is for sure infected, and the
>>>> footnote states it is within 1.5% accuracy for people ages 20 to 89.
>>>>
>>>> So far as I can trace it back, I think the author is a guy named Clay
>>>> Dreslough. He posted it with the following guide a guide to help non-gamers
>>>> (and the guide assumes people don't own a 100 sided die... which is weird
>>>> ;- ):
>>>>
>>>> For non-nerds:
>>>>
>>>> The number before the 'd' is the number of dice you roll, the number
>>>> after is the number of sides on the die. For example, 2d6 = roll two
>>>> 6-sided dice and add them together, giving you a possible range of 2-12. In
>>>> the 'Asymptomatic' box, there is an additional step in the formula, where
>>>> you subtract a number. For example, the 'Mask' roll is 2d6-8, meaning roll
>>>> two 6-sided dice and subtract eight, giving you a range of 0-4 for the
>>>> number of people you infect while wearing a mask (results below zero are
>>>> treated as zero — you can't infect a negative number of people).
>>>>
>>>> A d100 roll refers to taking two 10-sided dice, and designating one as
>>>> your tens unit, one as your ones unit. The example in the upper right of
>>>> the graphic shows a 3 and a 7, which becomes 37. Rolling two 0s yields 100,
>>>> not 00.
>>>>
>>>> So, all the places where it asks for d100 + your age, you'll do just
>>>> that. For me, being 49, this gives me a random number from 50 to 149. I
>>>> then find the arrow matching my roll and follow it to the next box.
>>>>
>>>> Finally, CON refers to your "Constitution" stat in Dungeons & Dragons —
>>>> a general measure of your physical health and endurance. The average person
>>>> has a CON of 10. An olympic athlete has a CON around 18.
>>>>
>>>> Note that while the fatality rates are pretty accurate for current CDC
>>>> data, there's really no data on "permanent damage" (in the same way that,
>>>> 19+ years later, we are still arguing about the number of soldiers
>>>> suffering from Gulf War Syndrome and the number of first responders
>>>> sickened by 9/11). And of course the medical community doesn't define "a
>>>> point of constitution", so that's just a guess. But I know more than one
>>>> person that's "recovered" and are still incapacitated to some degree.
>>>>
>>>> -----------
>>>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>>>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>>>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>>>> <echarles at american.edu>
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