[FRIAM] The Covid Game

Sat Jul 4 16:22:28 EDT 2020

Or maybe give them an "unknown chance" of permanent damage, that they can
redeem at some time in the future.  Did you win or lose?  Only time will
tell.

-- rec --

On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 1:26 PM Eric Charles <eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Huh... so... there are a few ways to deal with that I guess.... which gets
> us back to the issue of who gets to decide "asymptomatic" (the patient or
> the doctor) - because "has permanent lesions in their lungs" sure seems
> like something a doctor would consider "a symptom"....
>
> I guess, either way, we could just add a small chance that
> "asymptomatic" people develop permanent damage.
>
>
>
> -----------
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
> American University - Adjunct Instructor
> <echarles at american.edu>
>
>
> On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 12:26 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
>> Eric --
>>
>> There's this from June 23,
>> https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/23/864536258/we-still-dont-fully-understand-the-label-asymptomatic
>>
>> The findings are consistent with several studies following asymptomatic
>>> patients in China, which have found that many can
>>> <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/> develop lesions
>>> in the lungs despite having no outward symptoms, says Dr. Jennifer
>>> Taylor-Cousar
>>> <https://www.nationaljewish.org/doctors-departments/providers/physicians/jennifer-l-taylor-cousar>,
>>> a pulmonologist at National Jewish Health in Denver not involved with the
>>> paper. "It probably is, at least in this disease, pretty common," she says.
>>
>>
>> There are purely asymptomatic cases which do not progress, but we're
>> still figuring out how many there are, and how many of them have lesions,
>> and what the consequences of the lesions might be.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>> On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 10:56 AM Eric Charles <
>> eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Roger,
>>> Given that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is still likely a
>>> small fraction of the number of actual infections... and infected
>>> youngsters are still showing infinitesimal risk several months after the
>>> outbreak started... I think "asymptomatic" directly to "recovered" seems
>>> very plausible. The real problem when discussing "asymptomatic" is that
>>> there is a huge difference between a dude who would say "no symptoms here,
>>> I'm fine" and a person a doctor would thoroughly examine and declare to
>>> have no symptoms. So "asymptomatic" should really be understood as "cases
>>> that don't bother people more than whatever normal crap they deal with" or
>>> something like that.
>>>
>>> You're certainly right though that permanent damage is a big concern and
>>> a big unknown. I think the chart estimates are probably not bad, but we
>>> won't know for a long time: For the "moderate cases", 2d4 damage but you
>>> only recover 6, is a 19% chance of permanent damage, which is unlikely to
>>> make you very disabled. For the "severe" cases, 2d6 damage and you only
>>> recover 6, is a 50% of permanent damage, and a lot of possibility that you
>>> will be much worse off afterwards. (And, of course, it depends on the
>>> constitution level you start with.)
>>>
>>> -----------
>>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>>> <echarles at american.edu>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 1:39 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Pretty horrible.
>>>>
>>>> But the real horror was
>>>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/ which
>>>> made me wonder how asymptomatic the asymptomatic infections really are.
>>>> Like the early report of 3 scuba divers in Austria who self-isolated
>>>> through mild cases and then found out that their lungs were no longer
>>>> suitable for diving.  So there may be Recovery branches under the
>>>> Asymptomatic and Moderate Illness branches of the game, with possible never
>>>> recovered CON penalties on their tail ends.  We'll find out when people
>>>> start going back to the doctor for checkups, or having trouble shaking the
>>>> flu.
>>>>
>>>> And have we actually decided that asymptomatic is anything but a
>>>> variable length precursor to Moderate or Serious Illness?  I thought that
>>>> was still an open question.
>>>>
>>>> -- rec --
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 9:33 AM Eric Charles <
>>>> eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Hey, thought many of you might get a kick out of this (or be
>>>>> horrified... or both).
>>>>>
>>>>> [image: The Covid Game.jpg]
>>>>>
>>>>> Note that it starts with someone who is for sure infected, and the
>>>>> footnote states it is within 1.5% accuracy for people ages 20 to 89.
>>>>>
>>>>> So far as I can trace it back, I think the author is a guy named Clay
>>>>> Dreslough. He posted it with the following guide a guide to help non-gamers
>>>>> (and the guide assumes people don't own a 100 sided die... which is weird
>>>>> ;- ):
>>>>>
>>>>> For non-nerds:
>>>>>
>>>>> The number before the 'd' is the number of dice you roll, the number
>>>>> after is the number of sides on the die. For example, 2d6 = roll two
>>>>> 6-sided dice and add them together, giving you a possible range of 2-12. In
>>>>> the 'Asymptomatic' box, there is an additional step in the formula, where
>>>>> you subtract a number. For example, the 'Mask' roll is 2d6-8, meaning roll
>>>>> two 6-sided dice and subtract eight, giving you a range of 0-4 for the
>>>>> number of people you infect while wearing a mask (results below zero are
>>>>> treated as zero — you can't infect a negative number of people).
>>>>>
>>>>> A d100 roll refers to taking two 10-sided dice, and designating one as
>>>>> your tens unit, one as your ones unit. The example in the upper right of
>>>>> the graphic shows a 3 and a 7, which becomes 37. Rolling two 0s yields 100,
>>>>> not 00.
>>>>>
>>>>> So, all the places where it asks for d100 + your age, you'll do just
>>>>> that. For me, being 49, this gives me a random number from 50 to 149. I
>>>>> then find the arrow matching my roll and follow it to the next box.
>>>>>
>>>>> Finally, CON refers to your "Constitution" stat in Dungeons & Dragons
>>>>> — a general measure of your physical health and endurance. The average
>>>>> person has a CON of 10. An olympic athlete has a CON around 18.
>>>>>
>>>>> Note that while the fatality rates are pretty accurate for current CDC
>>>>> data, there's really no data on "permanent damage" (in the same way that,
>>>>> 19+ years later, we are still arguing about the number of soldiers
>>>>> suffering from Gulf War Syndrome and the number of first responders
>>>>> sickened by 9/11). And of course the medical community doesn't define "a
>>>>> point of constitution", so that's just a guess. But I know more than one
>>>>> person that's "recovered" and are still incapacitated to some degree.
>>>>>
>>>>> -----------
>>>>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>>>>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>>>>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>>>>> <echarles at american.edu>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>>>
>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>>
>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>
>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200704/42536d98/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: The Covid Game.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 74772 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200704/42536d98/attachment-0001.jpg>