[FRIAM] Covid graph

[Barry MacKichan]

The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time 
lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution 
started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down 
around Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age 
distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier. 
We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the 
reporting process.

—Barry
On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:

> B.
>
>
>
> But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS 
> changing.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
>  <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
>  <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
> Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> <friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
>
>
>
> The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people 
> were predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened 
> hospitals. Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If 
> not, what would cause deaths to level off while cases (and 
> hospitalizations as seen in the Atlantic article ( 
> <https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/> 
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/) 
> continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing 
> suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks 
> ago.
>
> —Barry
>
> On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote:
>
> but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after 
> starting two weeks ago


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