[FRIAM] Covid graph

[Eric Charles]

But compare across the three counties.

Italy leads us to believe it is a simple lag between cases and deaths...

but the US and Sweden don't go with that at all.  And adding more countries
doesn't significantly help that confusion.

On Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 3:07 PM Barry MacKichan <barry.mackichan at mackichan.com>
wrote:

> The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time
> lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution
> started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down around
> Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age
> distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier.
> We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the
> reporting process.
>
> —Barry
> On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> B.
>
>
>
> But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS
> changing.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Barry MacKichan
> *Sent:* Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
>
>
>
> The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people were
> predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened hospitals.
> Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If not, what would
> cause deaths to level off while cases (and hospitalizations as seen in the
> Atlantic article (
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/)
> continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing
> suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks ago.
>
> —Barry
>
> On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote:
>
> but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after starting
> two weeks ago
>
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