[FRIAM] Zoom invite for March 20 Virtual FRIAM
thompnickson2 at gmail.com
thompnickson2 at gmail.com
Thu Mar 19 19:32:10 EDT 2020
Stephen, and Owen,
It is wonderful that you-guys are doing that.
An interviewee on TRMS convinced me last night that the current response (shutting down functions, extreme distancing, etc.) is designed to protect old white guys at the expense of younger brown ones. Since the government consists largely of very old white guys, we can see why this is. But this policy is almost certainly unsustainable. For instance, agricultural production depends on migrant labor, so if the border is really closed, there will be food only for the very richest amongst us. So, once testing is up to speed, we are probably going to have to start leaking the virus through, hopefully holding the number of illnesses below the level of health system collapse. This conversation has not started, but it will begin very soon, and at that point, a model will be needed that factors in the health effects on the economically most vulnerable against the health effects on the medically most vulnerable, we old white guys. (I am 82, so I get to speak for OWG’S.) It will have to be understood that some OWG’S will die so that many more young brown people can live. . That will be the trade off, and you know how it’s likely to go unless we are ready do our part. This will particularly tricky when the vaccine gets closer and we OWG’S become like the soldiers on the field during the last day before the Armistice. Easy for me to say, I know, but If you have any way to show that relation, I hope it ultimately appear in your model.
In the meantime, I recommend that everybody use this time of social distancing to prepare and plant a garden.
Nick
Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Stephen Guerin <stephen.guerin at redfish.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:01 AM
To: thompnickson2 at gmail.com
Cc: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Zoom invite for March 20 Virtual FRIAM
Nick writes:
>Do you have a favorite contagion model to apply to this situation?
Yes. Ours. ;-p
Right now it's a baby that only a mother can love. It literally took its first steps just yesterday when it was delivered to the web. Owen is the proud father seeding the egg of Agentscript.org with a ported Netlogo virus on a network model:
https://backspaces.github.io/agentscript/models2/?virus
For the geeks, you can inspect its code here - I'm impressed that Owen got the syntax and semantics nailed with Agentscript to the point that a model like this can be expressed this tightly:
https://backspaces.github.io/agentscript/models/VirusModel.js
You can see more on AgentScript core here:
http://agentscript.org
http://backspaces.github.io/as-app3d/
Aww, you can see it currently looks like its mama here:
http://www.netlogoweb.org/launch#http://www.netlogoweb.org/assets/modelslib/Sample%20Models/Networks/Virus%20on%20a%20Network.nlogo
Cody and Josh are adopting the baby and raising it in their lovely geoSpatial home of Realtime.Earth. We have great plans for the baby (see attached) to serve the world leveraging real-time and historical citizen location data as it interacts with more grown up models like LANL's OPPIE/Episims <https://www.lanl.gov/projects/mathematical-computational-epidemiology/agent-based-modeling.php>
Silly metaphors aside, there's some good discussions this week on the SimSoc email list about epidemic models
https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A1=ind2003 <https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A1=ind2003&L=SIMSOC> &L=SIMSOC
and a review paper that may be of interest:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5594572/
Beyond the applied, you may have seen these two models this week which have been a great service for educating the public on the basics of SIR models and value of social interventions:
* Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve” - Washington Post <https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
* Outbreak: A playable disease simulation: https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/
I hope this Friday at Virtual FRIAM we can discuss viable short term approaches for implementing ABM SIR models coupled with geospatial and social dynamics to inform real-world policy and citizen behavior to mitigate the effects of the current spread.
-S
--- -. . ..-. .. ... .... - .-- --- ..-. .. ... ....
Stephen.Guerin at Redfish.com <mailto:Stephen.Guerin at Redfish.com>
1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505
office: (505) 995-0206 mobile: (505) 577-5828
tw: @redfishgroup skype: redfishgroup
redfish.com <http://redfish.com/> | simtable.com <http://simtable.com/>
On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:07 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:
THANKS, Stephen,
Do you have a favorite contagion model to apply to this situation?
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 9:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >; Wedtech at Redfish. Com <wedtech at redfish.com <mailto:wedtech at redfish.com> >
Subject: [FRIAM] Zoom invite for March 20 Virtual FRIAM
I configured to auto mute attendees when they enter to minimize feedback issues and background noise. You can unmute yourselves when you would like to speak. I will be there to Host.
I suggest that we have a reasonably focused conversation given an online format:
Some suggestions:
* China, Singapore, South Korea and Israel have achieved good collective action against COVID-19 but at sometimes at great privacy and freedom costs. The US might need to find an alternate path. What might that look like?
* What might Applied Complexity approaches offer a Epidemic Intelligence Service <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service> (Wikipedia)
* How can we have collective intelligence while maximizing privacy during an epidemic?
* How can we have collective action while maintaining freedom?
* Latest thinking on ABM and SIR Epidemic modeling and validation
* How do we get realtime location intelligence to and from the citizens while maximizing privacy? (George Duncan)
* others?
Tom, can you start a google doc and invite folks to edit?
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