[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

[Frank Wimberly]

Don't go to sleep, please

I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.

Frank
---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi, Y’all,
>
>
>
> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two
> sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an
> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how
> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.
> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to
> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing,
> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.
>
>
>
> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so
> paradoxical:
>
>
>
> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition
> is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come
> through it.”
>
>
>
> Most actionable suggestion of the day:
>
>
>
> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials
> begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system
> that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>
>
>
> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:
>
>
>
> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the
> one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so
> scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.
>
>
>
> I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb
> into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But
> conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion
> of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?
> Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic
> discussion:
>
>
>
> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the
> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our
> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public
> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders
> are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by
> a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect
> themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the
> most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they
> bring down the whole?
>
>
>
> Ok.  Now I am going to bed.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
>
>
> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>
> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>
> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>
> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>
> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
>
> or simulation.
>
>
>
> Jon
> ============================================================
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>
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