[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Fri Mar 20 15:47:19 EDT 2020

Frank,

Oh, I don’t mean THAT kind of sleep.  

I just mean that, if my head is full of shitty thoughts about the future, telling myself that I am not going to wake up is actually calming.  

It’s an instance of Thompson’s First Law:  

Thou shalt not worry about two mutually exclusive calamities.

I developed this law when I found myself sitting on my sunny front porch in New Braintree worrying, alternately, that the young elm tree growing near the porch would grow up and cast shade on the porch AND that the young elm tree growing near the porch would die of dutch elm disease.  

I figured that if I had nothing better to do with my mind, I should probably take a nap. 

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 1:02 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Don't go to sleep, please

I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Hi, Y’all, 

Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.  Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.  

Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical: 

“One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.” 

Most actionable suggestion of the day:  

Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. 

Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:  

How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.  

I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?  Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion: 

Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole?   

Ok.  Now I am going to bed. 

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> 

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect

of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.

What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people

that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?

For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, 

or simulation.

Jon

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