[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Sat Mar 21 10:21:03 EDT 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/20/emily-landon-coronavirus/

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 8:54 AM Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My
> concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of
> perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a
> car than not making it through this, what ever it is.   I gather the real
> issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at
> some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but  then also get just nastily
> congested lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen.
> And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and
> turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC,
> DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES
> NOW WITH MORE COWBELL!!!"  I don't know if that'll read well in text.
> Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds
> on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this
> Max-Hendroomy thing of turning this epidemic into something like that. As
> if it's a 80s WWF wrestling match
>
> But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself
> inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as
> Social Distancing.
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
>>
>> It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital
>> arrivals.
>>
>> On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> 
>> fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption
>> that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the
>> history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it.
>> Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters
>> either.
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on
>>> strategies to insure the election process can move forward.  This is in
>>> answer to Nick's (and my) concern.
>>>
>>> Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine
>>> locations
>>>
>>> States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail
>>> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> elections
>>> with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need
>>> them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already
>>> implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will
>>> begin implementing
>>> <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail
>>> voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse
>>> absentee voting
>>> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> and
>>> extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent
>>> absentee voting
>>> <https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists,
>>> whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot
>>> each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically
>>> mail
>>> <https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a
>>> ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters
>>> should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted
>>> ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up,
>>> drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect
>>> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> the
>>> health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All
>>> absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even
>>> if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I thought this was kind of interesting.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both
>>>> the viral and human data from one sample:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
>>>> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Date: *Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
>>>> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Don't go to sleep, please
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Frank
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Hi, Y’all,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into
>>>> two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an
>>>> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how
>>>> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.
>>>> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to
>>>> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing,
>>>> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so
>>>> paradoxical:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase
>>>> transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you
>>>> come through it.”
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Most actionable suggestion of the day:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials
>>>> begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system
>>>> that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One
>>>> the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it
>>>> is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just
>>>> climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.
>>>> But conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small
>>>> portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear
>>>> boundary?  Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a
>>>> catastrophic discussion:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the
>>>> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our
>>>> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public
>>>> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders
>>>> are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by
>>>> a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect
>>>> themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the
>>>> most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they
>>>> bring down the whole?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Ok.  Now I am going to bed.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nick
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>>>
>>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>>>
>>>> Clark University
>>>>
>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
>>>> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
>>>> *To:* friam at redfish.com
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>>>>
>>>> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>>>>
>>>> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>>>>
>>>> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>>>>
>>>> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
>>>>
>>>> or simulation.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Jon
>>>>
>>>> ============================================================
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>>>>
>>>> ============================================================
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>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
>>> ============================================================
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
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