[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

[thompnickson2 at gmail.com]

All, 

 

Nothing more pathetic than a man answering his own emails, but SOMEBODY has to do it. 

 

Not withstanding John’s reassurances that we aren’t the sort of people to let an election slide by, even in the roughest time, I still want to talk about as tyranny as the opportunistic infection that will kill us all. 

 

One of the natural limits on tyranny, ultimately perhaps the only one, is that people can put down their tools and go out into the street.  Now, in a pandemic, that is not possible. But with social media we have perhaps the equivalent of digital “streets”.  The trouble is, of course, that social media can be choked off. Also, is there any equivalent to the effect that a million person march has on the city in which they are marching?  

 

I guess I am wishing you smart, up-to-date complexity theorists would devote some time to the political phase change that could happen sometime between the November election date and the inauguration.  Sometime between now and November we have to design, implement, and legitimize non-in-person elections in 50 states.  And we have to do that while staving off the worst effects of a pandemic.  And we have to do it while a substantial proportion of our leader-class is incapacitated with illness.  And the rest of them are frantically trying to stay alive by not being in contact with anyone, least-wise voters.   How do we stay connected as polity?  How do we go out into the streets?  

 

It’s a perfect storm.  

 

Now, I did not get to the FRIAM meeting until well into Stephen’s presentation, so it’s possible some of this was covered.  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: thompnickson2 at gmail.com <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> 
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:55 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: RE: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

 

Hi, Y’all, 

 

Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.  Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.  

 

Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical: 

 

“One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.” 

 

Most actionable suggestion of the day:  

 

Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. 

 

Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:  

 

How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.  

 

I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?  Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion: 

 

Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole?   

 

Ok.  Now I am going to bed. 

 

Nick

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> 

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

 

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

 

At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect

of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.

What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people

that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?

For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, 

or simulation.

 

Jon

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