[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Sat Mar 21 19:36:48 EDT 2020

Yes, exactly. 

> 1.8 million people at a 1% fatality rate.

That’s what you get in countries that can give the best of their health service to patients who get very sick.  Italy’s death rate is currently around 10%.  
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/>
So multiply 1.8 million by 10x.  

There may be several factors that contribute to the worse patient profile in Italy, but certainly a large part of it is just overwhelming their capacity.  

I was glad Roger forwarded the Emily Landon segment.  Sanjay Gupta did a similarly good one on Colbert last week.  This idea that we have responsibilities to each other was a prominent part of his overall message, and the one that I have wished to hear put forward more often.

Eric

> On Mar 21, 2020, at 11:55 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
> 
> Gillian writes:
> 
> "One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is. "
> 
> In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road accidents.[1]   There have been 4,032 fatalities from COVID-19 so far.   The governor of California announced that 56% of the state could contract the virus.[2]  Extrapolating that to the whole country, an uncontrolled outbreak would kill about 1.8 million people at a 1% fatality rate.   There were 33,654 road fatalities in the United States in 2018.
> Stay at home.
> 
> Marcus
> 
> [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/ <https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/>
> [2] https://abc7news.com/6029302/ <https://abc7news.com/6029302/>
> [3] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state <https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state>
> 
> 
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> on behalf of Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com <mailto:gil.densmore at gmail.com>>
> Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:53 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>  
> Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is.   I gather the real issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but  then also get just nastily congested lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen. 
> And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC, DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES NOW WITH MORE COWBELL!!!"  I don't know if that'll read well in text.  Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this Max-Hendroomy thing of turning this epidemic into something like that. As if it's a 80s WWF wrestling match
> 
> But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as Social Distancing.
> 
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
> 
> It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital arrivals.
> 
>> On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com <mailto:gil.densmore at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> 
>> 
>> fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it.  Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters either.
>> 
>> 
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on strategies to insure the election process can move forward.  This is in answer to Nick's (and my) concern.
>> 
>> Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine locations
>> States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> elections with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin implementing <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse absentee voting <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> and extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent absentee voting <https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists, whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically mail <https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up, drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> the health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.
>> 
>> 
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>> I thought this was kind of interesting.  
>>  
>> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus <https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus>
>>  
>> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the viral and human data from one sample:
>>  
>> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf <https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf>
>>  
>>  
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>>
>> Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>> Date: Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>  
>> Don't go to sleep, please 
>>  
>> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.
>>  
>> Frank
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>  
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> Hi, Y’all, 
>>  
>> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.  Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.  
>>  
>> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical:
>>  
>> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.”
>>  
>> Most actionable suggestion of the day:  
>>  
>> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>>  
>> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question: 
>>  
>> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop. 
>>  
>> I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?  Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion:
>>  
>> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole?   
>>  
>> Ok.  Now I am going to bed. 
>>  
>> Nick
>>  
>> Nicholas Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>> Clark University
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>>  
>>  
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
>> Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
>> To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>  
>> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, 
>> or simulation.
>>  
>> Jon
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>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org/>
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefoff at gmail.com>
>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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