[FRIAM] Fwd: Old friends Covid-19 letter #2

[Tom Johnson]

>From my friend Mike Collins and Kathy Fox, reliable sources.

============================================
Tom Johnson - tom at jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   --     Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)                                    505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org>
*Check out It's The People's Data
<https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>*

============================================


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Michael Collins <amc at alumni.princeton.edu>
Date: Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:50 AM
Subject: Old friends Covid-19 letter #2
To: Kathe P Fox <kathe at kathefox.com>



Contents:

   1.

   Feedback from our first letter
   2.

   New research
   3.

   Links to more information




   1.

   Feedback


You are receiving this because we got a lot of positive feedback from our
first letter. Thanks! We have two responses:


   -

   Several people mentioned various drugs as potential health supplements
   or treatments. Since we think you should listen to experts, and we’re not
   experts on drugs or clinical practice, we’re not going to discuss drugs and
   treatments.
   -

   A reader asked whether the “flatten the curve” charts we have been
   seeing reflect the same number of hospital cases as in the worst case
   scenarios. Yes, they do. However, there is reason to be optimistic. It’s
   quite possible that while we are putting off being exposed, better
   treatments may be developed, even before a vaccine is available. Think of
   how AZT helped mitigate the effects of HIV. Then the “flatten the curve”
   charts would reflect a smaller area below the curve.



   1.

   Comments on new research



   1.

   Nature Medicine article: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from
   the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Takeaways:



   -

    The death rate in Wuhan was lower than originally thought. This is
   because the population number (the denominator) increased. Think of it like
   an iceberg. The first studies were done on the tip, now we’re learning more
   about the part under water. This doesn’t mean the disease is any less
   serious, but it’s good news.
   -

   Wuhan wasn’t prepared. We should expect a lower mortality rate in places
   that are better prepared. Also good news.



   1.


   http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/commentary-covid-19-transmission-messages-should-hinge-science
   COMMENTARY: COVID-19 transmission messages should hinge on science

Lida Brousseau, ScD, is a national expert on respiratory protection and
infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at
Chicago.


   -

   This is potentially bad news. Based on some non-peer-reviewed reports,
   short range aerosol transmission may be a bigger factor in catching the
   virus than we suspected.
   -

   Short range aerosol transmission means an infected person coughs/sneezes
   and the droplets stay in the air for a certain period of time - we don’t
   know how long. A study found that the SARS virus could stay in the air for
   up to three hours. You are exposed by inhaling the droplets (aerosol).
   -

   If confirmed, this finding is primarily important to medical
   professionals, who will need to take more precautions, especially
   mask-wearing.
   -

   “The public should avoid crowded spaces, stay home when possible,
   prepare for a lengthy period at home in case of quarantine, and follow
   public health and government instructions.” We should NOT buy, hoard, or
   wear masks, as they will be needed by health workers.
   -

   Hand washing and surface cleaning may not be as important as first
   thought, but we should keep it up.



3.  Some interesting links

Washington Post. Simple simulations of how the virus spreads under various
conditions. Should be free to access.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

NYT Zeke Emanuel flatten the curve explainer. Should be free to access.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html

If you want a really deep dive, you can take a whole course on Covid-19,
developed by Imperial College and presented through Coursera. Free,
approximately 19 hours to complete.
https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19?utm_medium=email&utm_source=marketing&utm_campaign=tIo98GlqEeqd_xFKDENJkw#syllabus

https://healthweather.us/  is a site developed for forecasting flu-like
symptoms. It has added a view for “ atypical illness,” not necessarily
covid but probably. You can see how things look in your state, county, or
ZIP code. It looks to me like we should be sealing the border with Florida.




-- 

*Michael Collinsamc at alumni.princeton.edu <amc at alumni.princeton.edu>*

<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail&utm_term=icon>
Virus-free.
www.avast.com
<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail&utm_term=link>
<#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200327/b3dd45ec/attachment.html>