[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

[Gary Schiltz]

The denominator is the elephant in the room that nobody seems to want to
talk about. Without knowing how many people in the population at large are
infected, how the hell can we learn anything about how serious Covid-19 is?
Without a doubt, a large percentage of the people who are hospitalized for
it are really screwed (approaching 5% death rate? or is it more?). But
unless we know how many people have it but have no symptoms or minor
symptoms, It's as if we were to say that driving is horribly dangerous
because 10% of the people who go to the ER because of head-on crashes die,
so nobody should drive. Where are the large scale random sampling efforts?
A few billion dollars would go a long way towards periodically testing a
randomly selected million people, then following the ones who test positive
with follow-up testing to see how the disease progresses.

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:59 PM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

>
> On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> My  brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia.  The map Georgia
> map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot.  Atlanta dominates the
> population of the State.  Southwest Georgia has a much higher
> concentration.  Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of
> rural African Americans.
>
> This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute
> numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least
> some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not
> renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of
> "slope".
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
>> Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S.
>>> state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The
>>> county seat is Gainesville.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides
>> maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Hall: 20,441
>>> DeKalb: 759,297
>>>
>>> On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>>> > Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic.  Go Kemp! What
>>> is the population of the two counties?
>>>
>>> --
>>> ☣ uǝlƃ
>>>
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>
>
> --
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
>
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