[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Wed May 6 23:01:27 EDT 2020

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to 
accurately assess.

A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a 
comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the 
numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

> I think that is a little pessimistic.   If you look at, say, the UK 
> Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things 
> like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution 
> and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic 
> sequences.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West 
> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each 
> State? - The New York Times
>
> When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be 
> hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the 
> formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for 
> those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of 
> astronomical epicycles.
>
> And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 
> individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. 
> And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.
>
> No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had 
> empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, 
> absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / 
> "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in 
> the US with similar populations and population density/distributions 
> will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural 
> investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.
>
> I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most 
> importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the 
> "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.
>
> davew
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com 
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>     Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?
>
>     N
>
>     Nicholas Thompson
>
>     Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
>     Clark University
>
>     ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
>     https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>     *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A
>     Smith
>
>     *Sent:* Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
>
>     *To:* friam at redfish.com
>
>     *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each
>     State? - The New York Times
>
>     On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
>         My  brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia.  The
>         map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. 
>         Atlanta dominates the population of the State.  Southwest
>         Georgia has a much higher concentration.  Georgia, unlike
>         Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
>
>     This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute
>     numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.   
>     At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they
>     are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual
>     estimation of "slope".
>
>         On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org
>         <mailto:rec at elf.org>> wrote:
>
>                 Hall County is a county located in the north central
>                 portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010
>                 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is
>                 Gainesville.
>
>             https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides
>             maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per
>             100000 population.
>
>             -- rec --
>
>             On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣
>             <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>                 Hall: 20,441
>
>                 DeKalb: 759,297
>
>                 On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>                 <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>                 > Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty
>                 dramatic.  Go Kemp! What is the population of the two
>                 counties?
>
>                 -- 
>
>                 ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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>
>         Frank Wimberly
>
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-- 
Joe

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