[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Thu May 7 00:05:02 EDT 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:02 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

There was an article on this, I think NYT, I think sometime last week.  So some group is currently doing that on some data set.  I too would like to see it done more comprehensively and systematically by some group.

Probably I saw the article because somebody posted it to this list.  Slap me when I wake back up.

Eric

On May 7, 2020, at 12:01 PM, Joe Spinden <js at qri.us<mailto:js at qri.us>> wrote:

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.
A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.

On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic.   If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com><mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm><mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com><mailto:friam at redfish.com>
Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
To: "friam at redfish.com"<mailto:friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com><mailto:friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.

No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.

I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.

davew

On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com<mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com><mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
To: friam at redfish.com<mailto:friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My  brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia.  The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot.  Atlanta dominates the population of the State.  Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration.  Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org<mailto:rec at elf.org>> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com<mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297

On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com<mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic.  Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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140 Calle Ojo Feliz
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505 670-9918

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