[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

[Gary Schiltz]

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday
is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car
here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get
to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00
pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Gary,
>
>
>
> If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a
> chance to meet Glen.  NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’.  It starts at 9 am
> Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday.  If
> not, let me know.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
>
>
> I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's
> Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks.
> Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be
> some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be
> associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and
> technologically challenged. :-).  Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense
> intended, Nick]
>
>
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to
> "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman
> list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into
> the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their
> posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting
> through contributions awkward, as well.
>
> Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to
> make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you
> have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then
> submit your results:
>
>
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge
> comes through failure, not success:
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come
> back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.
>
> On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
> >
> > This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the
> biological and the perceptual.
> >
> > The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made
> widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or
> may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based
> prognostications will be confirmed.  And none of this will matter.
> >
> > A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have
> next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point
> and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the
> other is imminent.
> >
> > "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift  —
> after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned
> small."
> >
> > Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and
> socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
> >
> > The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a
> behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously
> fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the
> the infection/death rate.
> >
> > Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will
> become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
> >
> > There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly
> and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few
> months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be
> quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences —
> ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
> >
> > None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple
> observation / prediction.
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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