[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Mon May 11 13:44:55 EDT 2020

Gary, 

FOOD before FRIAM!  Definitely.  But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late.  

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Gary, 

If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen.  NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’.  It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday.  If not, let me know.  

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-).  Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]

On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com> > wrote:

Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.

Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:

https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/

For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.

On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
> 
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and the perceptual.
> 
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications will be confirmed.  And none of this will matter.
> 
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
> 
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift  — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
> 
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
> 
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
> 
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.
> 
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
> 
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple observation / prediction.

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ

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