[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Robert J. Cordingley
robert at cirrillian.com
Mon May 11 15:55:50 EDT 2020
Perhaps some data (from the last years that I could find) would put the
'anthropologists' argument in perspective?
2017-now US Population about 320 million.
*US Suicides* *2017*
14.0 per 100,000
Total: *47,173*
*US Motor Vehicle Fatalities* *2018*
11.18 per 100,000
Total: *36,560*
*US Covid-19 Fatalities 5/11/20 *132 days into the year with one wave
under our belt
24.32 per 100,000
Total 2019 YTD: *80,094*
*US Spanish Flu Fatalities (1918 H1N1 flu pandemic)* - in as many as
three waves.
US Population: 103,208,000
654 per 100,000
Total Mar 1918 - Mar 1919: *675,000*
And yes people to go after the annual fatalities depending on the cause,
especially leading causes: heart disease, cancer, gun violence, opioid
abuse, domestic abuse, police violence, etc. And of course, you can
bring back jobs and the economy, you can't bring back lost loved ones.
And there are more waves to come.
And then we will continue experiencing more global warming induced
disasters: fires, flood, cyclones, more SARS-CoV-## style zoonotic
pandemics, climate refugees. What happens when these happen simultaneously?
It's hard not to conclude that capitalism is and has been a complete and
utter abject failure when responding and dealing with these events, not
mention it being among the causes, but I digress.
Ref:
https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/
https://interestingengineering.com/the-1918-spanish-flu-and-what-it-cost-humanity-a-timeline
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929
Robert Cordingley - an occasional lurker.
On 5/11/20 12:07 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is
> also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his
> dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his
> major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved
> in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000
> signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking
> damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the
> Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want
> that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with
> the signatures. They took it seriously.
>
> Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:
>
> The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19
> outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of
> America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That
> translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million
> people in the United States this year, and that translates into the
> following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and
> seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of
> “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when
> those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people
> with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death
> rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to
> be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the
> draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in
> destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the
> name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of
> the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes
> berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country
> alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life
> over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we
> DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will
> NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that
> constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED
> STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes,
> it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every
> year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the
> “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage??
> Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are
> willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has
> anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many
> tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who
> insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS
> DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need
> to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000
> unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to
> gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to
> go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are
> profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil
> and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is
> 50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is
> nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once
> again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get
> will be "F"orever.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Gary,
>
> FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before
> noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that
> late.
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
> I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms.
> Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go
> out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic
> pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket
> that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Gary,
>
> If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you
> will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for
> nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite
> automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
> I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus
> Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from
> the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called
> Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called
> Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated
> with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and
> technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer.
> [no offense intended, Nick]
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com
> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of
> other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found
> later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do
> this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the
> footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean
> up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such
> piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.
>
> Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think
> it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar
> to those experiment sites where you have to submit your
> design for review, then conduct the experiment, then
> submit your results:
>
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission
> that knowledge comes through failure, not success:
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's
> Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late
> June.
>
> On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by
> mid-June, 2020.
> >
> > This assertion is premised on making a distinction
> between the biological and the perceptual.
> >
> > The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be
> found and made widely available, and treatments that
> reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at
> hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based
> prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will
> matter.
> >
> > A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to
> die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or
> death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic
> (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the
> other is imminent.
> >
> > "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize)
> this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 /
> 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
> >
> > Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual
> reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
> >
> > The percentage of the population that wear masks (just
> one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal
> the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but
> this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the
> infection/death rate.
> >
> > Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the
> death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media
> "hysteria" will fade away.
> >
> > There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the
> affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired
> money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will
> argue against these changes but their objections will be
> quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of
> consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your
> fears or your ego?"
> >
> > None of the above should be interpreted as anything
> except a simple observation / prediction.
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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--
Cirrillian
Web Design & Development
Santa Fe, NM
http://cirrillian.com
281-989-6272 (cell)
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