[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

[Steven A Smith]

Dave -

> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:

What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to
indicate that the pandemic has ended?

From Wikipedia:

    A *pandemic* (from Greek
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> πᾶν, /pan/, "all"
    and δῆμος, /demos/, "people") is an epidemic
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a
    large region, for instance multiple continents
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
    substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with
    a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread
    endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as
    recurrences of seasonal influenza
    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are generally
    excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe
    rather than being spread worldwide.

The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

    /In the //*post-pandemic*// period, influenza disease activity will
    have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is
    expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza
    A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and
    update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An
    intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required./


Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?

- Steve


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