[FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Prof David West]

Nick,

The probability of any individual in the US having COVID-19 (known cases divided by population) is .00518

How many strangers — people you do not know are disease free or are non-infecting with antibodies — do you encounter, close enough to exchange droplets, in Santa Fe?

Add the number of strangers that anyone in your inner circle might similarly encounter?

Let's assume that an encounter guarantees transmission, such that if you/yours encounters someone with the disease, you will be infected.

So, if you or yours encounter ten strangers, your odds of getting the disease increase to .0518. If a hundred, then .518

The only difference in risk between Santa Fe and Massachusetts is the number of strangers you/yours encounter. That number is pretty much under your control, so there is some, but relatively minor, difference in risk.

using cases/population data, the odds of a stranger having covid in Hampshire county is 830/160,000 = .00519. In Santa Fe County, 126/150,000 = .00084.

The odds that a stranger has the virus is six times greater in Hampshire.

You control the number of strangers, so you control the risk.

Most of the other factors that I can think of — e.g. likelihood of a droplet exchange, likelihood of transmission — reduce the risk from the worst case numbers above.

A factor that would increase risk concerns the likelihood that a stranger has the disease given smaller population units than the county; i.e. 200 known cases in a 300 resident nursing home = 66%. Stay out of nursing homes!

Go to Mass and continue to be a hermit.

Caveat: I grabbed the first numbers on Google that presented themselves.

Statisticians feel free to tear my argument apart.

davew


On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 3:12 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, any more. 

> 

> By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads. 

> 

> Nick

> 

> Nicholas Thompson

> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

> Clark University

> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

> 

> 

> 


> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

> 

> Picky, picky.

> 

> Seriously, ...

> 

> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

>> Yes. Thanks, Frank. That’s where it used to be. But the “case growth rate” is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had. What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop.

>> 

>> Thanks,

>> N

>> 

>> Nicholas Thompson

>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

>> Clark University

>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

>> 

>> 


>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
>> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

>> 

>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200524&instance_id=18744&nl=the-morning&regi_id=60903300&segment_id=29017&te=1&user_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293 

>> 

>> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

>>> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e.. I am sure I am being dumb. Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

>>> 

>>> Thanks,

>>> 

>>> Nick

>>> 

>>> Nicholas Thompson

>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

>>> Clark University

>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

>>> 

>>> 


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>> 

>> 

>> --


>> Frank Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> 505 670-9918


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> 

> 

> --


> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918

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