[FRIAM] Covid and Politics

[Marcus Daniels]

There are 1.4 million people living in nursing homes in the US.   If, over time, COVID-19 spreads to the rest of the population that would be about 200 times worse (328 million / 1.6 million cases so far), assuming no herd immunity.   Once those conspicuous bursts of deaths subsided (because the most vulnerable were all dead), victory would be declared, esp. by red states.  From there, spread would happen more steadily.  At the same death rate observed so far, that would mean 20 million could die.   Someone had ironically joked this might rescue the Social Security system.   (I don’t think it will because those in nursing homes have already cashed in everything to get there.)   It would be interesting to know how many 50 and 60 year-olds have to disappear to make the numbers work?

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of cody dooderson <d00d3rs0n at gmail.com>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:11 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

That explain a lot about what seems like an extremely polar response to the lockdowns. A few days ago, a friend of mine saw a guy at the grocery store here in Albuquerque carrying an AK-47 and refusing to wear a mask. Thanks you for the insight.

Cody Smith


On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 10:52 AM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com<mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/donald-trump.html> in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org<http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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