[FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Wed May 27 13:23:58 EDT 2020

Nick,

After reading your post, I went on a short quest to prove you wrong.
Regretfully I did not find much information to support my claim. The most
optimistic date for a vaccine is like 9 months away, which is likely a very
rough estimate. They have a pretty effective vaccine for rhesus macaques,
but I am not particularly concerned with that.
September's second wave is only 3 months away, so it looks like a vaccine
is not going to be ready. Will we achieve natural herd immunity before the
vaccine is available?

Another article mentions neutralizing antibodies,
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc2241. Do
they intend to mass produce those antibodies and then inject them into
patients or is it just a proof of concept?

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did
this deadline come from?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 3:50 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Cody,
>
>
>
> Llama plasm.  I am not betting on Llama plasm by September.
>
>
>
> I think of this as our war.  Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK
> city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we
> wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm.  We would
> be hunkering down for a long campaign.
>
>
>
> The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it
> would do the job.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *cody dooderson
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics
>
>
>
> Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a
> vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the
> links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it
> possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not
> need the 'white van' approach in September?
>
>
> Cody Smith
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> So what is “benignitivity”?
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics
>
>
>
> Benignness.  Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others.  See how
> annoying we language obsessives are.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Yes.  The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission
> rate is slowed.  If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve
> toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is
> achieved, become mild and endemic.  Think of the competition within each
> host between the different strains.  The benign strain is making fewer
> copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts;
> the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing
> off it’s hosts quicker.  It’s a trait group selection problem.  Under high
> transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the
> benign strain wins.
>
>
>
> I hope I got that right.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics
>
>
>
> Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign
> vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e.
> avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?
>
>
>
> Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to
> which the virus is optimizing.  According to Ewald’s theory
> <https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16>,
> the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more
> transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.
>
>
>
> n
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics
>
>
>
> Dave writes:
>
>
>
> < 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total
> will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the
> lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >
>
>
>
> It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.
>
>
>
> Marcus
>
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