[FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Wed May 27 14:14:17 EDT 2020

Last night, on TRMS, a Montgomery AL nurse mentioned in passing that they were using plasma-based therapies, so I guess it’s out there. 

Somebody responded to my earlier post as if I were a cynic. I might be a liberal fascist, but I am not a cynic.  I believe in the White Van Policy.  I think it would be cheaper, allow for more opening up,  and LESS intrusive, particularly the more rigorously it is enforced on those few people it is enforced on.  Imagine, for a moment that we could seal off Santa Fe County, with its 150 k-folks.  (Big assumption).  At two reported cases a day, there are, let’s say, at any one time 20 people floating around the City with the Virus?  If all 20 of those had been picked up by the White Vans and were living at State Expense at the Sage Inn, fed by the heavily masked (but currently unemployed) hot bar cooks at Whole Foods, the rest of us could mostly run free, no?  The only problem is hiring the marks-people to sit by the roadside and shoot anyone who tries to come up the hill at La Bajada.  Hell, the NRA would probably provide those people for free.  

Yeh.  Maybe the White Van Policy doesn’t work.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Nick,

After reading your post, I went on a short quest to prove you wrong. Regretfully I did not find much information to support my claim. The most optimistic date for a vaccine is like 9 months away, which is likely a very rough estimate. They have a pretty effective vaccine for rhesus macaques, but I am not particularly concerned with that.

September's second wave is only 3 months away, so it looks like a vaccine is not going to be ready. Will we achieve natural herd immunity before the vaccine is available?

Another article mentions neutralizing antibodies, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc2241. Do they intend to mass produce those antibodies and then inject them into patients or is it just a proof of concept?

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 3:50 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Cody,  

Llama plasm.  I am not betting on Llama plasm by September. 

I think of this as our war.  Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm.  We would be hunkering down for a long campaign.  

The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it would do the job.  

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not need the 'white van' approach in September?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness.  Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others.  See how annoying we language obsessives are.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Yes.  The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed.  If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic.  Think of the competition within each host between the different strains.  The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts;  the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker.  It’s a trait group selection problem.  Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins. 

I hope I got that right. 

Nick   

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>  wrote:

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing.  According to Ewald’s theory <https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16> , the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels

Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself. 

Marcus

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