[FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Thu May 28 16:51:25 EDT 2020

Steve, 

Well, why not articulate the metaphor and start a new usage, to “stick-man” an argument,, i.e., to offer a highly simplified structure that others can flesh out.  

But I am much more serious about the white van program that perhaps I ought to confess to a coven of gun-toting libertarians.   And I take Cody to be about that serious about his summer camps.  As things presently roll along, we are slated to have 1k deaths a day, more or less indefinitely into the future.  That’s 400k deaths by the end of the year and at least a million before we get the vaccine, as the economy alternatively chokes and gasps for air under chaotic loosening ups and lock downs. .    The white van policy, cartoonishly represented I admit, is very close to  what we do with syphilis and used to do with TB and it will work..  We have started to think of ourselves as somehow in a post pandemic world and that we do not “deserve” to be quarantined.  The virus does care for deserts. 

n

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2020 2:30 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Nick -

I think Cody's question is a good example of what *I* have tended to think of as a "Strawman" (other thread) but now will try to call maybe a stickman or an armature .   I don't think he posited it as a literal "I can't see why we just don't go do this tomorrow, it is a watertight idea that needs to be implemented *this instant*" but rather a general thrust of an idea that *invites* criticism and discussion.   

Marcus' point might have been a "show stopper" invalidating the whole idea, or I would prefer to frame it as providing a good complementary 'criticism'... a simple and direct reason for which such an idea *might not* be relevant at all.   Your own response takes Cody's idea more seriously than mine does...  you are looking to "flesh out" when and how it *might* make sense.   The nut of your observation here seems to be that in a year (or so) we will A) become desperate enough to risk harming our children deliberately (think measles parties in the 50s?) and B) we will have resolved questions as implied by Marcus (maybe the immunity is not strong or long lasting enough to be worth the risk, or maybe it is); and C) by then we will know how effective of a vaccine or alternative therapies will be available.

Your own "white van" example I also take as a deliberately nearly-absurd example to draw fire, to find the complement to, to build-from-as-if-an-armature.   I'm not fully sure what all you gesture at with your white van and fortified la-bajada image, but I take it to suggest B) la-bajada: Isolating a community (like Gunnison CO did in 1918) and A) relaxing civil rights laws/regulations/expectations/standards to the point that anyone implied to be infected can be snatched by a biohazard-suited swat-team in a white van and tested and either released (with a thin or fat apology and maybe even reparations) or incarcerated in a gilded cage with lots of luxuries and top medical care until the infected becomes recovered and then released to "go forth and prosper"

- Steve

Interesting, Cody.  

I think if a vaccine weren’t within a year or so, such a policy might be entertained, unlike my suggestion of white vans plus shooting everybody who tries to come up la bajada. 

Who would staff it?  The staff would have to be isolated in the camp, too. 

Medical Staff would have to be really good.  A really good hospital would have to be quickly available. 

Parents would have to sign releases.  

Other than that, I can’t see why that doesn’t work. 

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam  <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2020 8:12 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group  <mailto:friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

I had what I think is a great idea for herd immunity. What if the government were to open overnight summer camps, and even pay for every kid to spend 1 month canoeing, camping, and most importantly catching covid. This way they could gain a herd immunity so that school could safely open in September.

On Wed, May 27, 2020, 2:05 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com <mailto:sasmyth at swcp.com> > wrote:

Cody -

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

I think September is a placeholder for:  

1.	Return to School (and the social mixing implied at all grade levels)
2.	Acutely (equinox) shortening days of sunlight (UV on outdoor surfaces and time spent out/indoors/close quarters)
3.	Cooler weather (not sure that is anything but a proxy for 2?).

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