[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

Excellent! As we're seeing with the re-politicization of the SCOTUS, more decisions are made in smoky back rooms than I'd been reared to believe.  These Legal Eagle episodes are helpful:

Problems with the Electoral College ft. Extra Credits
https://youtu.be/KYVw9lPiCHQ



On 11/2/20 8:05 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> I think I have a counterexample, if such things exist when discussing probability.
> 
> The US presidential election with the highest turnout (81.8%, as a percentage of the voting age population) was the Tiden-Hayes election of 1876. It is also the smallest electoral vote victory (185-184). The winner of the popular vote (by 3%) did not win the election. The result ultimately came from a back, presumably smoky, room.
> 
> —Barry
> 
> On 28 Oct 2020, at 19:19, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:
> 
>     From:
> 
>     https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
> 
>     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not against them.


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↙↙↙ uǝlƃ