[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Barry MacKichan]

I think I have a counterexample, if such things exist when discussing 
probability.

The US presidential election with the highest turnout (81.8%, as a 
percentage of the voting age population) was the Tiden-Hayes election of 
1876. It is also the smallest electoral vote victory (185-184). The 
winner of the popular vote (by 3%) did not win the election. The result 
ultimately came from a back, presumably smoky, room.

—Barry

On 28 Oct 2020, at 19:19, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:

> From:
>
> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
> "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump 
> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less 
> likely."
>
> Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher 
> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin 
> victories, not against them.
>
> -- 
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
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