[FRIAM] Small Nuclear

Tue Nov 10 13:58:26 EST 2020

My dad worked on advanced, highly safe, concepts for nuclear reactors at
Westinghouse Nuclear Energy Division.  I don't remember the details but he
said that there would be a severe international crisis by 2050 if the world
didn't aggressively pursue nuclear (fission) energy in some form.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 11:18 AM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com> wrote:

> You can outsource your thinking any time to me off-line, Nick.  I am very
> interested in what you just sent, and it applies to the work we are
> presently doing at our Center.
>
> On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 9:07 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Hi, Anybody,
>>
>>
>>
>> I stumbled on this letter in research gate, which seemed to suggest that
>> we are on the edge of a bustling “small nuclear” economy.  The idea seems
>> to be that we retrofit all our power plants with lowish temperature
>> reactors  and there’s your carbon problem solved, bang!  I gather that
>> these reactors also produce hydrogen which could then be used as a fuel for
>> vehicles?  Did I read that right?
>>
>>
>>
>> The earlier answer on the entropy of renewables answered the question;
>> especially when allied with a simple calculation on energy density for
>> solar and wind. I strongly recommend https://www.withouthotair.com/
>> <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.withouthotair.com%2F>
>> by either buying the book or it is available to download for free. The
>> author sadly died in his prime but his most important legacy has global
>> implications and is factual. It proves that the energy balance cannot be
>> met with natural, non-depleting sources. Please be careful with what you
>> read, many exponents of renewables equate electricity with energy. In
>> advanced countries electricity is only about 20% of the primary energy
>> supply. Heat and transport dominate by far worldwide.
>>
>>
>>
>> As for nuclear, the IVth Generation of high temperature fission reactors
>> is the near term future. Light water moderated reactors have been deployed
>> almost universally in all countries except India, UK and Canada who have
>> each chosen different routes. The reason for the light water reactor's
>> dominance despite escalating safety costs is well documented in the
>> military history of the last century. UK amongst some others developed and
>> deployed the high temperature gas cooled 'dry' route which has many
>> advantages as are now recognised.
>>
>> The Generation IV small modular reactors are inherently safe (see Ref
>> Kletz, Trevor for a definition) as has been physically demonstrated in
>> Japan and China on real plants. These countries have looked carefully and
>> dispassionately at the options and developed devices which are inherently
>> safe, factory reproducible, provide high enough temperatures for industrial
>> and domestic heat, also high enough to produce thermo-chemical hydrogen for
>> synthetic transport fuels and provide distributed energy sourcing since it
>> is not feasible to transmit the total energy quantities demanded
>> electrically in mature economies. Growing economies can move directly to
>> distributed low-carbon nuclear elegantly avoiding electricity or gas or
>> liquid fuel transmission infrastructure.
>>
>>
>>
>> The most advanced demonstration plant in the world is the HTR-PM,
>> presently in commissioning at 2 x 100 MWe in China following the proving of
>> its smaller prototype and serious worldwide development effort over
>> decades. The worldwide body of knowledge on high temperature small nuclear
>> is at a point where deployment at scale is practical before 2030. Most
>> advanced countries have small modular reactor programmes with designs at
>> advanced stages. The high temperature small modular reactor preparations in
>> China, Japan, USA, UK, France and many others produce heat at a temperature
>> matched to repower large coal stations carbon-free by re-using all except
>> the boilers. Deployment studies for such repowering have been completed in
>> China and USA. You will appreciate the massive impact this will have upon
>> global emissions.
>>
>>
>>
>> The fuel is of course radioactive but is non-proliferating for weapons
>> use because it is contained in ceramic which is harder to break down than
>> newly mined materials so is unattractive and this also makes it safer to
>> store as waste. Waste storage volumes are smaller than from light water
>> reactors due to the higher utilisation of the fuel in the lower energy
>> density core and the conversion efficiency of the downstream processes plus
>> other helpful factors. These high temperature small modular reactors can
>> operate on other fuels such as thorium but can also consume legacy 'hot'
>> residues from pressurised water reactors and the military.
>>
>> In practical terms, it is physically impossible to build traditional
>> large nuclear power stations at a rate relevant to the latest Paris
>> imperatives. The only way to achieve a high pace of transition, even
>> without global energy growth, is by factory manufacture of small
>> distributable energy plants on a numerical scale similar to other volume
>> manufactures such as aircraft. The Boeing 737 now has delivered 10,000
>> units manufactured at licensed factories worldwide and is still growing.
>> This aircraft has a similar investment profile to small modular reactors in
>> factory set up and economies of repetition. Volume manufacturing techniques
>> from other industries are especially relevant to small modular nuclear but
>> have not yet been widely applied in nuclear.
>>
>>
>>
>> As has been said by others in this post, the energy subject is large but
>> that should not prevent thinking fundamentally about the underlying
>> thermodynamic realities as MacKay has done, applying the immutable laws of
>> physics in this debate as few have done and unemotionally analysing the
>> problem and reaching conclusions as many enlightened nations have already
>> but perhaps too quietly done so that democracies can be offered rational
>> choices.
>>
>>
>>
>> Perhaps the final arbiter is cost in all these things. The UK Government
>> Techno Economic Assessment has shown that small nuclear is attractive from
>> a socio economic perspective and was followed up by a formative expert
>> finance working group to make ready the market and the commercial context.
>> Most recently a study, which can be extrapolated internationally laid out a
>> pathway.
>> https://d2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net/insightReports/Preparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf?mtime=20161011145322
>> <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fd2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net%2FinsightReports%2FPreparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf%3Fmtime%3D20161011145322>
>>
>> So the answer to Dariusz's question is in my view, YES, supported by
>> massive programmes of excellent work invested in small modular high
>> temperature reactors which is largely unseen by the general population and
>> decision makers to who sadly have so far only been offered rather poor,
>> expensive and regressive energy choices for all our children.
>>
>> Please read widely and draw your own conclusions
>>
>>
>>
>> The source is:
>> https://www.researchgate.net/post/Does_nuclear_power_have_a_future_or_will_new_technologies_of_renewable_energy_be_developed_in_the_energy_sector#view=5fa3fc12212f30468621d416
>>
>>
>>
>> I apologize for once again out-sourcing my thinking.  I promise that in
>> return I am ever ready to answer your urgent  inquiries concerning the
>> alarm calls of *Corvus brachyrynchos*.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>
>> Clark University
>>
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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