[FRIAM] Small Nuclear

Tue Nov 10 17:18:10 EST 2020

Thanks, Merle, 

Lemme know what you think! 

I also expected some reaction from Kim, either positive because it is against power transmission, or negative because it’s local, or both.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2020 12:17 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Small Nuclear

You can outsource your thinking any time to me off-line, Nick.  I am very interested in what you just sent, and it applies to the work we are presently doing at our Center.

On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 9:07 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Hi, Anybody, 

I stumbled on this letter in research gate, which seemed to suggest that we are on the edge of a bustling “small nuclear” economy.  The idea seems to be that we retrofit all our power plants with lowish temperature reactors  and there’s your carbon problem solved, bang!  I gather that these reactors also produce hydrogen which could then be used as a fuel for vehicles?  Did I read that right?

The earlier answer on the entropy of renewables answered the question; especially when allied with a simple calculation on energy density for solar and wind. I strongly recommend https://www.withouthotair.com/ <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.withouthotair.com%2F>  by either buying the book or it is available to download for free. The author sadly died in his prime but his most important legacy has global implications and is factual. It proves that the energy balance cannot be met with natural, non-depleting sources. Please be careful with what you read, many exponents of renewables equate electricity with energy. In advanced countries electricity is only about 20% of the primary energy supply. Heat and transport dominate by far worldwide.

As for nuclear, the IVth Generation of high temperature fission reactors is the near term future. Light water moderated reactors have been deployed almost universally in all countries except India, UK and Canada who have each chosen different routes. The reason for the light water reactor's dominance despite escalating safety costs is well documented in the military history of the last century. UK amongst some others developed and deployed the high temperature gas cooled 'dry' route which has many advantages as are now recognised.

The Generation IV small modular reactors are inherently safe (see Ref Kletz, Trevor for a definition) as has been physically demonstrated in Japan and China on real plants. These countries have looked carefully and dispassionately at the options and developed devices which are inherently safe, factory reproducible, provide high enough temperatures for industrial and domestic heat, also high enough to produce thermo-chemical hydrogen for synthetic transport fuels and provide distributed energy sourcing since it is not feasible to transmit the total energy quantities demanded electrically in mature economies. Growing economies can move directly to distributed low-carbon nuclear elegantly avoiding electricity or gas or liquid fuel transmission infrastructure. 

The most advanced demonstration plant in the world is the HTR-PM, presently in commissioning at 2 x 100 MWe in China following the proving of its smaller prototype and serious worldwide development effort over decades. The worldwide body of knowledge on high temperature small nuclear is at a point where deployment at scale is practical before 2030. Most advanced countries have small modular reactor programmes with designs at advanced stages. The high temperature small modular reactor preparations in China, Japan, USA, UK, France and many others produce heat at a temperature matched to repower large coal stations carbon-free by re-using all except the boilers. Deployment studies for such repowering have been completed in China and USA. You will appreciate the massive impact this will have upon global emissions.

The fuel is of course radioactive but is non-proliferating for weapons use because it is contained in ceramic which is harder to break down than newly mined materials so is unattractive and this also makes it safer to store as waste. Waste storage volumes are smaller than from light water reactors due to the higher utilisation of the fuel in the lower energy density core and the conversion efficiency of the downstream processes plus other helpful factors. These high temperature small modular reactors can operate on other fuels such as thorium but can also consume legacy 'hot' residues from pressurised water reactors and the military. 

In practical terms, it is physically impossible to build traditional large nuclear power stations at a rate relevant to the latest Paris imperatives. The only way to achieve a high pace of transition, even without global energy growth, is by factory manufacture of small distributable energy plants on a numerical scale similar to other volume manufactures such as aircraft. The Boeing 737 now has delivered 10,000 units manufactured at licensed factories worldwide and is still growing. This aircraft has a similar investment profile to small modular reactors in factory set up and economies of repetition. Volume manufacturing techniques from other industries are especially relevant to small modular nuclear but have not yet been widely applied in nuclear.

As has been said by others in this post, the energy subject is large but that should not prevent thinking fundamentally about the underlying thermodynamic realities as MacKay has done, applying the immutable laws of physics in this debate as few have done and unemotionally analysing the problem and reaching conclusions as many enlightened nations have already but perhaps too quietly done so that democracies can be offered rational choices. 

Perhaps the final arbiter is cost in all these things. The UK Government Techno Economic Assessment has shown that small nuclear is attractive from a socio economic perspective and was followed up by a formative expert finance working group to make ready the market and the commercial context. Most recently a study, which can be extrapolated internationally laid out a pathway. https://d2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net/insightReports/Preparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf?mtime=20161011145322 <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fd2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net%2FinsightReports%2FPreparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf%3Fmtime%3D20161011145322>  

So the answer to Dariusz's question is in my view, YES, supported by massive programmes of excellent work invested in small modular high temperature reactors which is largely unseen by the general population and decision makers to who sadly have so far only been offered rather poor, expensive and regressive energy choices for all our children.

Please read widely and draw your own conclusions

The source is: https://www.researchgate.net/post/Does_nuclear_power_have_a_future_or_will_new_technologies_of_renewable_energy_be_developed_in_the_energy_sector#view=5fa3fc12212f30468621d416

I apologize for once again out-sourcing my thinking.  I promise that in return I am ever ready to answer your urgent  inquiries concerning the alarm calls of Corvus brachyrynchos.       

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> 

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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