[FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

[Frank Wimberly]

I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management
students at Carnegie Mellon.  I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for
infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some
explanation capability.  According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin]
provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based
on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence
<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval> in each diagnosis'
probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."

But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field.  I
assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same.
Too bad.

By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in
the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine
readable" way to do it.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

>
>
> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?
>
>
> I don’t know how common that is, Frank.  The few people I know who are
> active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have
> understood) that it is rare and limited.  I spent some time looking at the
> zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI,
> with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal
> representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate
> classification and historical reconstruction.  Never could get a call-back
> from any of the google people.  But I didn’t think at the time that
> zero-shot had been unpacked.
>
> Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.
>
> Eric
>
>
> Happy Veterans Day,
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> Friam poll:
>>
>> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
>> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html
>>
>> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the
>> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is
>> likely to vote.
>>
>> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the
>> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who
>> read books.  But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number
>> of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any
>> political impact at all.
>>
>> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend
>> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should
>> be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.
>>
>> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather
>> than public box.  It will take over after the first few times it produces
>> much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on —
>> AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out
>> of sample.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
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