[FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Wed Nov 11 11:47:20 EST 2020

Thanks for that, Eric.  It's clarifying.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:43 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> Yes, it seems that the kind of reporting that would be natural for expert
> systems does not have a good reason to map to deep neural nets.  To the
> extent that I refer to the right architectures as “expert systems”, I think
> of them as having a knowledge structure dictated by the architect.  Reading
> out parts of it that are used short of the conclusions as an “explanation”
> integrates naturally into the architecture as it is.
>
> For neural nets, the part that one engineers is a combinatorial parameter
> space that is both very large and very high-dimensional.  The learning loop
> guide the dynamics into some region in that space, but in what sense “being
> in that region” is a representation of regularities in the inputs is for
> the architect to discover, but largely not to have designed.
>
> Thus it seems that “reporting” entails the invention of a representation
> that is matched both to the particular state of the neural net, which it
> may not have a way to survey, and to the comprehension standards of people,
> to which it has no way to be coupled at all.  That kind of invention seems
> like a meta-operation of the process on its own internal state, and a
> higher-order function.
>
> I wonder if there is some crowd-sourcing protocol, by which the AI could
> propose representations of its internal state, and a distributed pool of
> users through feedback to it (kind of like Ken Stanley’s picbreeder) could
> represent criteria for human comprehension, by which the meta-operation
> would be implemented as just one more layer of reinforcement learning.
> Probably end up with 70 million Fox viewers, and 70 million more Elvis
> fans, standing in for human comprehension.
>
> But I don’t work in this area, and will stop now.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> On Nov 11, 2020, at 11:21 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management
> students at Carnegie Mellon.  I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for
> infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some
> explanation capability.  According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin]
> provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based
> on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence
> <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval> in each diagnosis'
> probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."
>
> But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field.  I
> assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same.
> Too bad.
>
> By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in
> the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine
> readable" way to do it.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning?
>>
>>
>> I don’t know how common that is, Frank.  The few people I know who are
>> active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have
>> understood) that it is rare and limited.  I spent some time looking at the
>> zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI,
>> with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal
>> representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate
>> classification and historical reconstruction.  Never could get a call-back
>> from any of the google people.  But I didn’t think at the time that
>> zero-shot had been unpacked.
>>
>> Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>> Happy Veterans Day,
>>
>> Frank
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Friam poll:
>>>
>>> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone?
>>> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html
>>>
>>> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the
>>> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is
>>> likely to vote.
>>>
>>> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the
>>> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who
>>> read books.  But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number
>>> of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any
>>> political impact at all.
>>>
>>> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend
>>> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should
>>> be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come.
>>>
>>> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private
>>> rather than public box.  It will take over after the first few times it
>>> produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is
>>> based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to
>>> extrapolate out of sample.
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>>
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