[FRIAM] SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Oct 14 12:08:56 EDT 2020
Cody -
Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today
than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of
what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!
I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would
result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of
gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing... the few
attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and
there were no outbreaks while I was there... see! I tole'ya it was a
Democrat Hoax!". I think the "return to college" is maybe providing
some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring
Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.
I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to
have even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied
levels of herd-immunity might be. I remember when some of the early
broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of
more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I
thought we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of
"herd immunity". Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat
ambiguous...
I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network
transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity"
means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals
limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others. It
seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address
that. Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what
actually characterizes such?
- Steve
On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:
> I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd
> immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from
> Steve Smith.
>
> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if
> the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new
> jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for
> overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. And the
> Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection
> and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but
> come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can imagine
> fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting
> Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?
>
>
> Cody Smith
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com
> <mailto:sasmyth at swcp.com>> wrote:
>
> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for
> the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you
> like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and
> D(eath)... and is parameterized with sliders.
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html
>
> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):
>
>
> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js
>
> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond
> echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation
> followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant
> herd-immunity. This author refers to it as "hiding infections in
> the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too
> well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season
> IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care
> capacity, and/or effective vaccines.
>
>
> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
>
> For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures
> and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care
> capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.
>
> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many
> Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for
> the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the
> territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for
> calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).
>
> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the
> evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who
> say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be
> infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure
> if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus
> resistant.
>
> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/
>
> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY
>
>
> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if
> the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new
> jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for
> overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. And the
> Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection
> and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but
> come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can imagine
> fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting
> Blue States early on, then later vice-versa? Seems like the
> ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty
> social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is
> at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally
> quite easily social-disanced.
>
> Mumble,
>
> - Steve
>
>
> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / .
> .-.. --- ..
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
> <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam>
> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20201014/73b90ed7/attachment.html>
More information about the Friam
mailing list