[FRIAM] SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.

Wed Oct 14 13:18:50 EDT 2020

Also here's a recent Sep 22 IEEE Spectrum with our friend Mikhail Pokopenko
featured on ABM approaches later in the article

"Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard"
https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard

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Stephen.Guerin at Simtable.com <stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
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On Wed, Oct 14, 2020 at 11:11 AM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> Tentative answer to my own question:
>
> https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512
>
>
> On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
>
> Cody -
>
> Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today
> than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what
> I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!
>
> I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would
> result.  The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of
> gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing...   the few attendees
> in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no
> outbreaks while I was there... see!  I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!".
> I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well,
> though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020
> moments.
>
> I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have
> even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels
> of herd-immunity might be.   I remember when some of the early broad
> testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more
> widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought
> we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd
> immunity".    Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat
> ambiguous...
>
> I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network
> transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity"
> means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals
> limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others.   It seems
> that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that.
> Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually
> characterizes such?
>
> - Steve
> On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:
>
> I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity
> and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.
>
> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the
>> Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few
>> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce
>> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but
>> also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take
>> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
>> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can
>> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
>> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States
>> early on, then later vice-versa?
>>
>
> Cody Smith
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
>> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS
>> model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It
>> doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is
>> parameterized with sliders.
>>
>>
>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html
>> <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html>
>>
>> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):
>>
>>
>> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js
>> <https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js>
>>
>> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond
>> echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed
>> by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.
>> This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a
>> good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting
>> hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good
>> treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.
>>
>>
>> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
>> <https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b>
>>
>> For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and
>> styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and
>> ability to location-track and shut down mobility.
>>
>> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red
>> States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate
>> "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the
>> population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the
>> answer to which, is naturally 42).
>>
>> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the
>> evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we
>> didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours
>> ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might
>> end up being a source of virus resistant.
>>
>>
>> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/
>>
>>
>> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY
>>
>>
>> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the
>> Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few
>> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce
>> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but
>> also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take
>> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
>> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can
>> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
>> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States
>> early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction
>> economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more
>> service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even
>> office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.
>>
>> Mumble,
>>
>>  - Steve
>>
>>
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