[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Roger Critchlow]

I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close
outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more
votes in play.

-- rec --


On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> N = 3 is slightly better.  But I don't have time or incentive to do a
> detailed statistical analysis.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40.  The Kennedy/Nixon and
>> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close.  In all three elections the
>> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a
>>> very close election.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether
>>>> high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
>>>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
>>>> votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
>>>> voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
>>>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
>>>> similar margin, according to polls.
>>>> >
>>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>>>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>>>> >
>>>> > Frank
>>>> >
>>>> > ---
>>>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>> >
>>>> > 505 670-9918
>>>> > Santa Fe, NM
>>>> >
>>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:
>>>> gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> >     From:
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <
>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>>>> >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
>>>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>>>> >
>>>> >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>>>> victories, not against them.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>>>
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