[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

Gary Schiltz gary at naturesvisualarts.com
Wed Oct 28 22:40:30 EDT 2020


I think that Republicans make up way less than half of the population, but
the people who are traditionally less inclined to vote, would vote Democrat
if they voted.  This is responsible for Republicans lately getting very
slightly over half the votes cast.  I further believe that most of the
newly motivated voters come from this heretofore underrepresented left
leaning group, hence the likelihood of the Democratic margin of victory
being larger this year. Whether that implies a correlation between turnout
and margin of victory, I will leave it to the statisticians to argue over.

Incidentally, I have warned to the idea of mandatory voting, as we have
here in Ecuador, and I believe in Australia as well. Without a “papel de
votación”, i.e. a certificate that proves that you voted in the
previous election, you have to pay a fine in order to get government
services such ad drivers licenses.

On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:16 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:

> I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close
> outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more
> votes in play.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> N = 3 is slightly better.  But I don't have time or incentive to do a
>> detailed statistical analysis.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40.  The Kennedy/Nixon and
>>> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close.  In all three elections the
>>> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a
>>>> very close election.
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether
>>>>> high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
>>>>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
>>>>> votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
>>>>> voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
>>>>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
>>>>> similar margin, according to polls.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>>>>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Frank
>>>>> >
>>>>> > ---
>>>>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>>>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>>
>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>>
>>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>> >
>>>>> > 505 670-9918
>>>>> > Santa Fe, NM
>>>>> >
>>>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com
>>>>> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>> >
>>>>> >     From:
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <
>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>>>>> >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
>>>>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>>>>> >
>>>>> >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>>>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>>>>> victories, not against them.
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>>>>
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