[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Sun Sep 13 00:27:56 EDT 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6935a2.htm

The above might be of particular interest.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 10:25 PM Tom Johnson <tom at jtjohnson.com> wrote:

> Tkx.
>
> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 10:03 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Tom
>>
>> https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html
>>
>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 10:00 PM Tom Johnson <tom at jtjohnson.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Frank, do you have some pointers on the MMWR?
>>> Thanks, Tom
>>>
>>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:35 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political
>>>> reasons.  At least they got caught.
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>>
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 5:11 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be
>>>>> attenuated.    Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect.    Or at least find
>>>>> someone new to talk to.   Push some different information through that
>>>>> soggy wetware.  Appreciate people that are trying to do their job.
>>>>>  Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron)
>>>>> don't really matter in the big scheme of things.    And so on.   If nothing
>>>>> else just STFU for a minute, would you?  I can totally see the Rick Gates
>>>>> type people:  Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do
>>>>> grab and handful of cash and walk away.
>>>>>
>>>>> How many dozens of times have I been told to lower the dimensionality
>>>>> of what I am trying to communicate up the management chain?  If managers
>>>>> can't grasp a complicated story, the worker bees and especially the Trumper
>>>>> types certainly won't get it either.   In my mind democracy is more about
>>>>> defining what is worthy about civilization and culture and finding basic
>>>>> some basic consensus about who we want to be.   If that isn't possible,
>>>>> then let's take off the gloves and get to it, you know?   The business of
>>>>> running things for the most part has to be delegated, just like almost
>>>>> every service and product we use is delegated to others.
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
>>>>> Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 3:17 PM
>>>>> To: friam at redfish.com
>>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>>>>
>>>>> Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
>>>>> just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
>>>>> Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in
>>>>> his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country,
>>>>> I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this
>>>>> time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy
>>>>> thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy.
>>>>>
>>>>> I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
>>>>> another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story
>>>>> where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of
>>>>> their trigger-issues.
>>>>>
>>>>> And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
>>>>> (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of
>>>>> nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican
>>>>> Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on registered
>>>>> Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the crap they insert
>>>>> into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have any other source of
>>>>> information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his
>>>>> allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
>>>>> they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the
>>>>> streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that
>>>>> the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and
>>>>> blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into
>>>>> safety if Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective
>>>>> foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g.
>>>>> Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump
>>>>> stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates.
>>>>>
>>>>> I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well...
>>>>> except for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come
>>>>> around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems,
>>>>> yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right
>>>>> back into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only 60%
>>>>> against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of
>>>>> the usual attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound like fear to
>>>>> me.   I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it
>>>>> seems likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and
>>>>> deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal
>>>>> charges without the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct
>>>>> obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President
>>>>> seems to allow for, hiding the evidence.
>>>>>
>>>>> I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
>>>>> scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised
>>>>> to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The Trumpsters like
>>>>> to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and
>>>>> Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything
>>>>> (much less everything) Trump does.
>>>>>
>>>>> My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
>>>>> significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
>>>>> factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded.
>>>>> THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of
>>>>> LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't
>>>>> have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous
>>>>> behaviour.
>>>>>
>>>>> The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be
>>>>> interesting...
>>>>>
>>>>> - Steve
>>>>>
>>>>> On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>>>> > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.
>>>>>  But mostly people are morons.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>>>> > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>>>> > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
>>>>> > To: friam at redfish.com
>>>>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his
>>>>> credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may
>>>>> have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."
>>>>> >
>>>>> > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to
>>>>> have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to
>>>>> justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive
>>>>> regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear
>>>>> of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction
>>>>> to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and
>>>>> devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the
>>>>> messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and
>>>>> provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power
>>>>> to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > davew
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
>>>>> >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will
>>>>> >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere
>>>>> sometime.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I
>>>>> haven't
>>>>> >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay
>>>>> >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled
>>>>> >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth
>>>>> >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from
>>>>> >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making
>>>>> >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's
>>>>> made mistakes.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as
>>>>> >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to
>>>>> >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of
>>>>> >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the
>>>>> >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on
>>>>> the
>>>>> >> victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or
>>>>> >> especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a
>>>>> typical
>>>>> >> abuse of facts to foster a false narrative.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible
>>>>> to
>>>>> >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such
>>>>> is
>>>>> >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer
>>>>> >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
>>>>> >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume
>>>>> was
>>>>> >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's
>>>>> >> small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit,
>>>>> >> and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's
>>>>> >> impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in
>>>>> our
>>>>> >> echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the
>>>>> >> bar" to be included in our in-group.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>>>> >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci —
>>>>> have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses.
>>>>> Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate
>>>>> >>> CFR = case fatality rate
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms.
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher
>>>>> >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3%
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have
>>>>> compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the
>>>>> disease and to justify draconian measures.
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more
>>>>> deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they
>>>>> rail against the lock down.
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the
>>>>> difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of
>>>>> COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious
>>>>> phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the
>>>>> average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in
>>>>> order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with
>>>>> directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced
>>>>> and complicated, factual argument for their policies.
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these
>>>>> days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and
>>>>> annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk
>>>>> of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
>>>>> >>
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>>
>>
>> --
>> Frank Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> 505 670-9918
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