[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Sun Sep 13 00:22:59 EDT 2020

Tkx.

On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 10:03 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Tom
>
> https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html
>
> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 10:00 PM Tom Johnson <tom at jtjohnson.com> wrote:
>
>> Frank, do you have some pointers on the MMWR?
>> Thanks, Tom
>>
>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:35 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political
>>> reasons.  At least they got caught.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 5:11 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be
>>>> attenuated.    Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect.    Or at least find
>>>> someone new to talk to.   Push some different information through that
>>>> soggy wetware.  Appreciate people that are trying to do their job.
>>>>  Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron)
>>>> don't really matter in the big scheme of things.    And so on.   If nothing
>>>> else just STFU for a minute, would you?  I can totally see the Rick Gates
>>>> type people:  Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do
>>>> grab and handful of cash and walk away.
>>>>
>>>> How many dozens of times have I been told to lower the dimensionality
>>>> of what I am trying to communicate up the management chain?  If managers
>>>> can't grasp a complicated story, the worker bees and especially the Trumper
>>>> types certainly won't get it either.   In my mind democracy is more about
>>>> defining what is worthy about civilization and culture and finding basic
>>>> some basic consensus about who we want to be.   If that isn't possible,
>>>> then let's take off the gloves and get to it, you know?   The business of
>>>> running things for the most part has to be delegated, just like almost
>>>> every service and product we use is delegated to others.
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
>>>> Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 3:17 PM
>>>> To: friam at redfish.com
>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>>>
>>>> Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
>>>> just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
>>>> Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in
>>>> his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country,
>>>> I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this
>>>> time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy
>>>> thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy.
>>>>
>>>> I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
>>>> another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story
>>>> where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of
>>>> their trigger-issues.
>>>>
>>>> And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
>>>> (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of
>>>> nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican
>>>> Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on registered
>>>> Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the crap they insert
>>>> into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have any other source of
>>>> information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his
>>>> allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
>>>> they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the
>>>> streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that
>>>> the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and
>>>> blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into
>>>> safety if Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective
>>>> foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g.
>>>> Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump
>>>> stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates.
>>>>
>>>> I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well...
>>>> except for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come
>>>> around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems,
>>>> yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right
>>>> back into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only 60%
>>>> against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of
>>>> the usual attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound like fear to
>>>> me.   I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it
>>>> seems likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and
>>>> deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal
>>>> charges without the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct
>>>> obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President
>>>> seems to allow for, hiding the evidence.
>>>>
>>>> I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
>>>> scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised
>>>> to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The Trumpsters like
>>>> to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and
>>>> Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything
>>>> (much less everything) Trump does.
>>>>
>>>> My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
>>>> significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
>>>> factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded.
>>>> THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of
>>>> LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't
>>>> have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous
>>>> behaviour.
>>>>
>>>> The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be
>>>> interesting...
>>>>
>>>> - Steve
>>>>
>>>> On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>>> > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.
>>>>  But mostly people are morons.
>>>> >
>>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>>> > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>>> > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
>>>> > To: friam at redfish.com
>>>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>>> >
>>>> > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his
>>>> credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may
>>>> have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."
>>>> >
>>>> > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to
>>>> have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to
>>>> justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive
>>>> regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear
>>>> of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction
>>>> to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.
>>>> >
>>>> > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and
>>>> devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the
>>>> messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and
>>>> provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power
>>>> to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.
>>>> >
>>>> > davew
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
>>>> >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will
>>>> >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't
>>>> >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay
>>>> >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled
>>>> >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth
>>>> >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from
>>>> >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making
>>>> >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's
>>>> made mistakes.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as
>>>> >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to
>>>> >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of
>>>> >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the
>>>> >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the
>>>> >> victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or
>>>> >> especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a
>>>> typical
>>>> >> abuse of facts to foster a false narrative.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to
>>>> >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such
>>>> is
>>>> >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer
>>>> >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
>>>> >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume
>>>> was
>>>> >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's
>>>> >> small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit,
>>>> >> and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's
>>>> >> impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our
>>>> >> echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the
>>>> >> bar" to be included in our in-group.
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>>>> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>>> >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci —
>>>> have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses.
>>>> Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate
>>>> >>> CFR = case fatality rate
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher
>>>> >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3%
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have
>>>> compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the
>>>> disease and to justify draconian measures.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more
>>>> deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they
>>>> rail against the lock down.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the
>>>> difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of
>>>> COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious
>>>> phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the
>>>> average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in
>>>> order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with
>>>> directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced
>>>> and complicated, factual argument for their policies.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these
>>>> days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and
>>>> annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk
>>>> of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
>>>> >>
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>
>
> --
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
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