[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

[glen∉ℂ]

It's also important to note that conservatives tend to feel/see fear more prominently than those open to new experiences. Marcus' point about reactive grievance is an indicator. It's not the conservative tendency to be afraid that generates the grievance culture, though. Conservative fear is well-placed for things like hardening networks, computer security, etc. ... domains where it's necessary to have some serious threat thinkers on the team. What generates grievance culture is *laziness*, the inability to continue working on the problem, a giving up, throwing up one's hands and yelling about liberals or "bad neighborhoods".

Dave's fear is right. We should all, always, be Antifa, anti-fascist, in whatever forms fascism might take. But in fighting fascism, it pays to stay on point, to talk about the work, to do the work, and not spin off into rants that do no useful work. So, the 1st part of Dave's post, identifying the difference between IFR and CFR is good work. The 2nd part is self-indulgent ranting. And to be clear, I'm a big fan of self-indulgent ranting, obviously ... as long as we all recognize it when we see it ... especially when I do it.

I'm very happy they came down hard on Reinoehl, even if the Marshals and Sheriffs tend to be right wingers. To all those who'd fight fascism, leave your guns at home. To paraphrase Marcus, the individual doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. So, carrying a hand gun to "protect yourself", even if it's because you have kids at home, remains stupid, whoever carries it.


On 9/13/20 8:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
> Dave -
> 
> I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value:
> 
>     /Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. /
> 
> but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted:
> 
> 	A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.
> 
> 	B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
> 
> I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel...
> 
>     A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight".   The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"...  law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers".   He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight".   Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts...   they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016).  None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff?
> 
>     As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and northern AZ?)...  I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their* friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and ammo than average?
> 
>     B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among the /Liberal Elite/ and /Liberal Snowflakes /who "hate Trump"... I have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives...  (though I have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an Apocalypse).
> 
>     The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which people have been pushed into a corner.    Compare a Waco or Ruby Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder) cases that BLM is in reaction to.   I was shocked by the *singular* shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some cases allowed to walk away.  Maybe your embedding in a violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like.  I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a  little afraid that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the
>     threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered.
> 
> Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them.   This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil.
> 
> - Steve
> 
> On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.
>>
>> Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink.
>>
>> The classical response to fear is "fight or flight."
>>
>> If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.
>>
>>
>> If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
>>
>> Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.