[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

[Prof David West]

Steve - the problem is unambiguously defining exactly which group of people we are talking about. It is the same problem that constantly arises in discussions about political bases and the constituents thereof, versus the radical fringe elements.

Your "Righty" friends, fully prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse, like almost everyone I know that is affiliated with a "militia" are all bluster. They will not seek out a fight.

Ranchers and farmers will be too busy dealing with a drought to take up arms against anyone. Plus they are mostly fatalists at heart and will "simply wait it out."

The police will be all to willing to wade into the fray, just as they did in the sixties. Ammon Bundy, BTW, supports BLM because his decidedly "Righty / Trumpy" faction sees BLM as confronting a common enemy - the State in the form of the police.

The "flight" has already begun. Couer d'ALene Idaho was, last year, the number one destination of Californians who identify as other than Democratic. There will be conflicts for sure, but along the axes of wealth and effete lifestyle, not politics. Within a ten square mile area of where I live, I can name more than twenty families building homes to "escape" California and its politics. And yes, I know, anecdotes are not evidence.

Those who will not / cannot accept four more years will take to the streets in mass protest. Unfortunately, it seems like those protests cannot occur any longer without arson and property destruction. And guess what the response to that will be.

davew


On Sun, Sep 13, 2020, at 9:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
> Dave -

> I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value:

>> *Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.
*
> but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who will flight that seems inverted:

> 	A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.

	B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.

> 
> I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel...
> 
>> A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight".   The Donald has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the "strong people"...  law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers, construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers".   He touts the second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight".   Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their counterparts...   they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016).  None of this reads to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff?  
>>  
>> As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and northern AZ?)...  I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their* friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and ammo than average?
>> 
>> B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among the *Liberal Elite* and *Liberal Snowflakes *who "hate Trump"... I have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives...  (though I have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an Apocalypse).   
>> 
>> The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which people have been pushed into a corner.    Compare a Waco or Ruby Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder) cases that BLM is in reaction to.   I was shocked by the *singular* shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some cases allowed to walk away.  Maybe your embedding in a violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like.  I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a  little afraid that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered.   
>> 
> Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse, and has made intimations that they are itching to use them.   This is VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil.

> - Steve

>> 
> On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.

Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink.

The classical response to fear is "fight or flight."

If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes of the day.


If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a cause and lacking any kind of purpose.

Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.

davew


On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 4:17 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
>> 
>>> Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters
in his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this
country, I think the question of whether humans in general and US
Citizens at this time, are capable of anything outside of an A)
Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy thinly disguised as a Representative
Democracy.  

I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a
story where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or
more of their trigger-issues.

And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
(declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage
of nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the
Republican Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on
registered Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the
crap they insert into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have
any other source of information (or more to the point, primary evidence
of Biden and his allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the
streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that
the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and
blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake
into safety if Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective
foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown
(e.g. Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way
Trump stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates.

I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except
for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come
around to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the
Dems, yet very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies
right back into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only
60% against holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about
10-20% of the usual attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound
like fear to me.   I don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them
up!" even though it seems likely that The entire Trump family , his
staff (present and deprecated) and some of his cabinet might well be
subject to criminal charges without the current obfuscation,
misdirection, and direct obstruction the (implied/implicit?) power of
the office of the President seems to allow for, hiding the evidence.  

I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he
promised to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The
Trumpsters like to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right
(and Left and Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is
offended by anything (much less everything) Trump does.  

My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well
organized/funded.   THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and
I"m sure plenty of LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose
I'm just glad I don't have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?)
overstating Trumps outrageous behaviour.  

The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting...

- Steve

On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>> 
>>>> When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.   But mostly people are morons.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."

I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.

I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.

davew




On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
>>>> 
>>>>> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will 
suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.

I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't 
checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay 
out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled 
[in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth 
status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from 
consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making 
attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.

Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes.

When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS 
pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render 
opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in 
light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC 
rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your 
post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first 
part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster 
a false narrative.

But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to 
such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is 
the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer 
because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
*content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was 
offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small 
appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false 
narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to 
harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber 
dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be 
included in our in-group.


On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>>>> 
>>>>>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.

IFR = infection fatality rate
CFR = case fatality rate

A "case"requires symptoms.

Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%

COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher 
percent] and a CFR of 2-3%

For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures.

Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down.

There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).

In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies.

Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
>>>>>> 
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