[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

[Steve Smith]

> It's also important to note that conservatives tend to feel/see fear
> more prominently than those open to new experiences. Marcus' point
> about reactive grievance is an indicator. It's not the conservative
> tendency to be afraid that generates the grievance culture, though.
> Conservative fear is well-placed for things like hardening networks,
> computer security, etc. ... domains where it's necessary to have some
> serious threat thinkers on the team. What generates grievance culture
> is *laziness*, the inability to continue working on the problem, a
> giving up, throwing up one's hands and yelling about liberals or "bad
> neighborhoods".
>
> Dave's fear is right. We should all, always, be Antifa, anti-fascist,
> in whatever forms fascism might take. But in fighting fascism, it pays
> to stay on point, to talk about the work, to do the work, and not spin
> off into rants that do no useful work. So, the 1st part of Dave's
> post, identifying the difference between IFR and CFR is good work. The
> 2nd part is self-indulgent ranting. And to be clear, I'm a big fan of
> self-indulgent ranting, obviously ... as long as we all recognize it
> when we see it ... especially when I do it.
>
> I'm very happy they came down hard on Reinoehl, even if the Marshals
> and Sheriffs tend to be right wingers. To all those who'd fight
> fascism, leave your guns at home. To paraphrase Marcus, the individual
> doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. So, carrying a hand
> gun to "protect yourself", even if it's because you have kids at home,
> remains stupid, whoever carries it.

All good points, as usual... and I realize that *most* of my offerings
here are self-indulgent rantings (or ravings)...  

Regarding Reinoehl, I'm not against "swift intervention" to prevent him
(or others inspired by him) from "taking their guns to town" again, some
more.  The trope of "swift justice" however, has no place in the culture
I want to live in.  Swift intervention yes, and timely justice yes, but
"swift justice" is just another name for lynching and vigilanteism.  
What I am alluding to is that so far all I've seen referenced to his
"apprehension" is that he "produced a weapon" which in modern vernacular
could mean anything from pointing a firearm at the officers directly (in
the open or from cover) to walking out with his weapon held high in the
air, ready to drop it or place it on the ground (as instructed?), to
having a belt knife that he didn't think to remove before trying to
surrender.    They didn't say "fired upon"  or"returned fire" or even
"brandished a weapon", they said "produced a weapon".   Too many
euphemisms to sort through?

If the ABQ PD had handled the NM Militia at the downtown shooting (Right
against Left) a month or so ago, they might all have been dead since
they were all "presenting weapons" (still in holsters or on slings) when
the cops arrived.   I'm not advocating police abuse against Militias,
just noting how much harder it is to get shot by cop if you are wearing
fatigues or camo, have a military style weapons, and a flag on your
sleeve and maybe a MAGA hat.

Similarly, the Chicago Police might have as easily SWATted Kyle
Rittenhouse's (parents?) house and shot him (and anyone else there?) if
they displayed any kind of resistance (especially if it appeared they
had a gun, which I suspect Kyle and maybe his family were fond of having
"handy" in case someone busted down their doors).     Maybe someone in
that mix (Kyle, his friends and family, or the Chicago Police) went way
out of their way to make sure that didn't happen.

Apparently Reinoehl (or the folks trying to apprehend him) weren't as
careful about that.  I haven't followed up on Reinoehl nearly enough,
depending too much on "push media" to tell me what they think I need to
know.

- Steve

>
>
> On 9/13/20 8:20 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
>> Dave -
>>
>> I am trying to take your disclaimer at face value:
>>
>>     /Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions. /
>>
>> but there is something about your analysis of who will fight and who
>> will flight that seems inverted:
>>
>>     A) If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the
>> losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young
>> envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled
>> with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural themes
>> of the day.
>>
>>     B) If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the
>> losing side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police,
>> but also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any
>> vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a
>> cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
>>
>> I don't have Glen's skill at proper Steelman construction, so what I
>> present here is probably an amalgam of straw and steel...
>>
>>     A) I see no strong evidence of the conservative/right being prone
>> to "flight".... "hunker down" maybe, but not "flight".   The Donald
>> has been *very* proud and out loud to list off "his people", the
>> "strong people"...  law enforcement, military, farmers, ranchers,
>> construction workers, and aping Putin, "the bikers".   He touts the
>> second amendment with vigor while using the first amendment as a
>> shield of convenience... which does not sound a bit like "flight".  
>> Most of his supporters I know personally have at least a little more
>> swagger and bluster and implied intimidation than their
>> counterparts...   they show no shame around gerrymandering, voter
>> suppression (playing "poll observer" while sporting assault-style
>> weapons?), and celebrating a thin win via electoral college vs
>> popular vote as a "Mandate" (in 2000 and 2016).  None of this reads
>> to me as the ingredients for "flight" unless this is all bluff?
>>
>>     As to flooding Deseret (Utah and surrounds all the way to the
>> Canadian border through Idaho and bits of Eastern OR, Western CO and
>> northern AZ?)...  I can't imagine the folks already there welcoming
>> more than their "friends and family" and maybe a handful of *their*
>> friends and family, but only as long as they bring more dry goods and
>> ammo than average?
>>
>>     B) Traditionally I see very little propensity for violence among
>> the /Liberal Elite/ and /Liberal Snowflakes /who "hate Trump"... I
>> have heard over the decades (starting with the 2000 debacle?) plenty
>> more liberals threatening to "move to Canada" as a response to what
>> they see (for pretty good reason) as an injustice and an
>> aberration/undermining of Democracy, than Conservatives...  (though I
>> have a few Righty friends who have created hidey-holes in third world
>> countries where they can hoard their food and guns in the event of an
>> Apocalypse).
>>
>>     The social unrest whose sharp tip has included direct
>> confrontatation of Law Enforcement reflects the distance to which
>> people have been pushed into a corner.    Compare a Waco or Ruby
>> Ridge or similar to the hundreds of police-brutality (unto murder)
>> cases that BLM is in reaction to.   I was shocked by the *singular*
>> shooting of a Right Winger in Oregon by a Left winger, and not at all
>> surprised when the Left Winger got shot dead during apprehension
>> while the *several* Right-Wing militia types who shot protestors
>> armed with at most, a skateboard, were taken very gently and in some
>> cases allowed to walk away.  Maybe your embedding in a
>> violent/reactionary leftist movement in the '60s informs you more to
>> the likelihood or nature of what a leftist reaction might look like. 
>> I think it is probably *good* that my gun-nut friends with MAGA hats
>> (nearly always screwed on way too tight) might be a  little afraid
>> that those they would like to intimidate with violence or the
>>     threat of it might have their own venomous bite if cornered.
>>
>> Maybe a virulent mass uprising by the Left (or to me "center") if
>> Trump and his cronies mangle the election into something
>> unrecognizeable is aspirational on my part... but I can't think of a
>> single Righty friend or acquaintance of mine who doesn't own a gun or
>> 10 and way too much ammunition for anything but a zombie apocalypse,
>> and has made intimations that they are itching to use them.   This is
>> VERY rare in my righty friends... almost to nil.
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>> On 9/13/20 8:47 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>> The entire campaign, as near as I can tell, is nothing except scare
>>> the crap out of your base in order to defeat the other guy. Both
>>> sides are guilty, albeit with differences in luridness.
>>>
>>> Once you have appealed to, and convinced your side of, fear and
>>> loathing, there is no easy off-switch. This pretty much guarantees
>>> that the losing side will react to the results from fear and nothing
>>> else. The fractures will become permanent precisely because they are
>>> grounded in irrationality and there is no path back from the brink.
>>>
>>> The classical response to fear is "fight or flight."
>>>
>>> If Biden wins: flight will become the majority response of the
>>> losing side. Massive influx of people to what Brigham Young
>>> envisioned as the "State of Deseret." Home and self defense coupled
>>> with preparation to "repel" the invading feds will be cultural
>>> themes of the day.
>>>
>>>
>>> If Trump wins: fight will become the majority response of the losing
>>> side. Violence in the streets, mostly focused against police, but
>>> also against anyone and anything deemed to be "pro Trump" in any
>>> vestige. All the pomp and pageantry of a revolution, but without a
>>> cause and lacking any kind of purpose.
>>>
>>> Just observations, not aspirations nor convictions.
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