[FRIAM] election odds

[Steve Smith]

I also believe these markets are at risk from being "thin" and
"self-selecting"... the former for gambling addicts and the latter for
wonks and academics...

Our elections themselves are self-selecting for "those who give a damn"
(by some quality of a-damn).

I don't think these betting markets reflect "intent" but rather "belief"
in the "put your money where your mouth is".   If I were a betting man I
might well bet for who I thought showed the most promising odds while
voting against my own winning.   E.G. Jon's imaginary bet on Kanye.

When my daughters were coming "of age" I told them (for the first time)
that I had parlayed the Savings Bonds my parents had put aside for my
college (which they didn't offer me until I was *struggling* half-way
through, but I still didn't cash) into a still small but significant nut
for *their college*.   The Indian Casinos were just opening up, and the
betting age was still 18 (before they added liquor to the equation).   I
suggested that if they wanted "an easy ride" in college they could take
that stake down and put it on "red or black" / "odd or even" on the
roulette table...   if they won (just shy of 50/50 chance) then they'd
have a college experience closer to their friends who were being sent
off with a car and a credit card and all the bills routed to mom and
dad, and if they lost they'd have an experience closer to the one I had
(though my parent's savings bonds represent that they *were* prepared to
help me if/when needed).   I then suggested that if they didn't want to
be burdened with my apparent expectation of "going to college" they
could put it down on "0" with 37:1 odds and go forth into the world
without advantage OR be mini-trust-funders.

As you (Barry) point out, the "thinness" would seem to allow for various
forms of "gaming" this system.   The Russian-bots in a bidding war
against the Chinese-bots deciding our election (by persuading/dissuading
*real* voters through these markets)?

Or maybe these are just different fiddles for us to play while we burn
our own culture to the ground with petty (and not so petty) disagreements.

On 9/14/20 9:47 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> Is there any information on how thin these ‘markets’ are? I vaguely
> recall that at some time in the past (2016?) some people were placing
> bets in order to generate buzz for a candidate. And in advance, I:
>
>   * do not know how people could claim to know ‘intent’.
>   * don’t recall who or in what election.
>   * know any other details.
>
> —Barry
>
> On 14 Sep 2020, at 11:22, Prof David West wrote:
>
>     An alternative to polling.
>
>     https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics?referral=Fc2BQNxuElGSe_1o8kmCS2Nd7ZgqdRLk&affid=10737
>
>     https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/
>
>     davew
>
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