[FRIAM] hot time in town tonight

[Marcus Daniels]

Up until all human life is gone, I think there are still reasonable definitions for apocalyptic even though there will be opportunities for someone all the way down.    We could disagree, I suppose, if some transhuman is created during this period.. was that the apocalypse or the birth?

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of ? glen
Sent: Sunday, September 20, 2020 4:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] hot time in town tonight

It seems to me that both 'states' are delusional. What if the distinction between apocalyptic state and an efflorescent state is illusory and simply a function of one's perspective? I.e. every single happy thing faces apocalypse every time the shit hits the SteveS ... I mean,  the fan 8^D ... and every stressed thing faces the efflorescent every time the shit hits the fan? One person's collapse is another's maximal opportunity? And further, the shit is always hitting the fan. But the privileged don't *notice* because the transition is from one efflorescent state to another, for them. That implies a 2nd order apocalypse/efflorescence ... patterns within patterns. 


On September 20, 2020 3:23:43 PM PDT, Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>a
>>
>> “A cultural efflorescence or an apocalyptic collapse?”
>>
>> It is not clear to me these options need to be mutually exclusive.
>>
>> Marcus
>>
>I agree heartily...  there are many paths...  in the very weak ensemble 
>study (10,000 scenarios) we did before Stockholm last year, using the
>World2 SD model, we found a strong positive correlation between a high 
>per-capita GDP in the year 2100 and a peak in human population sooner 
>rather than later.  Not terribly surprising I suppose?
>
>Per Capita GDP is in no way a progressive measure of life, liberty, or 
>the pursuit of slap-happiness but the most obvious one in World2 and 
>the population peak (soon) could alternatively represent a thoughtful 
>and significantly pervasive global negative population growth, or an 
>apocalyptic collapse following a sharp increase in population (or some 
>other manner of overrun of resources).
>
>I'm sure buried in that 10,000 high-dimensional points, are some 
>trajectories where an efflorescence magically *precedes* an apocalyptic 
>collapse, but I'm guessing that the bulk are ordered just the opposite.
>
>And of course, from the point of view of the bulk of the biosphere, a 
>human collapse (all the way to zero population?) might represent a 
>"best case scenario" as many species *did* seem to enjoy the quietude 
>of human activity in April-May 2020.

--
glen ⛧

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