[FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

[Merle Lefkoff]

Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper
limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary
boundaries.

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out,
the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like
silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Pieter,
>
>
>
> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact
> puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!
>
>
>
> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was
> rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not
> expect copper prices to be rising?
>
>
>
> Which of my assumptions is wrong.
>
>
>
> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the
> conductive properties of copper?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?
>
> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm
> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his
> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
> "  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  *infinite
> reach*: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no
> upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "
>
> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us.
> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no
> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?
>
>
>
> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Pieter,
>
>
>
> That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical
> question.
>
>
>
> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the
> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
> But of course, it's different this time around
>
>
>
> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough
> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at
> a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we
> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My
> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Merle, and all,
>
>
>
> A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an
> energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector
> on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof
> (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible,
> what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa
> Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A
> motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric
> car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he
> wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book
> about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in
> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry
>
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything
>
>
>
> -J.
>
>
>
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> --
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
> twitter: @merle110
>
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>
> --
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
> twitter: @merle110
>
>
>
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-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110
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