[FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Sat Apr 17 01:26:46 EDT 2021

@ Nick,

Re " You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could
use some new blood. "

Thanks Nick, I really would like to join your sessions, but I just have too
many things on my todo list so for now I'm going to pass

On Fri, 16 Apr 2021 at 00:12, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Pieter,
>
>
>
> You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could use
> some new blood.
>
>
>
> Bill McCallum is usually there; he da materials guy.
>
>
>
> See Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:44 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
> Simple, because the technology to get copper out of the earth and convert
> it into a usable form is developing faster than population rise and
> supplies dwindling.
> My argument is that exactly this has been happening for centuries, why
> would it suddenly stop now?
> Going back to the 1980 bet between Simon and Ehlrig
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager. According to
> Ehlrig we should have run out of resources long ago, but technological
> development made a big difference. Another example, the US was on her way
> to run out of oil a couple of decades ago and is now an exporter of oil.
>
> I repeat, I'm not saying it WILL happen. All I'm saying is not to assume
> technological development HAS to end end doom HAS to happen. We just don't
> know what the future will bring and there are people like David Deutsch
> that see a very bright future for humanity.
>
> Back to copper, I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper :
>
> Julian Simon <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon> was a
> senior fellow at the Cato Institute
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cato_Institute> and a professor of
> business and economics. In his book *The Ultimate Resource 2
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource>* (first printed in
> 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak
> resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though
> "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century,
> "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of
> copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even
> though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it
> was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time –
> around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run
> out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.
>
> Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of
> known reserves is deeply flawed,[39]
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-39> as it does not
> take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are
> exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element
> and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known
> reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago,
> occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that
> prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic
> technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from
> ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material
> being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was
> vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago.[40]
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-40>
>
> Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered
> and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have
> occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be
> reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper
> supplies have increased and prices have fallen.
>
>
>
> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 21:13, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Pieter,
>
>
>
> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact
> puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!
>
>
>
> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was
> rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not
> expect copper prices to be rising?
>
>
>
> Which of my assumptions is wrong.
>
>
>
> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the
> conductive properties of copper?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?
>
> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm
> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his
> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
> "  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  *infinite
> reach*: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no
> upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "
>
> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us.
> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no
> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?
>
>
>
> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Pieter,
>
>
>
> That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical
> question.
>
>
>
> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the
> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
> But of course, it's different this time around
>
>
>
> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough
> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at
> a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we
> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My
> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Merle, and all,
>
>
>
> A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an
> energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector
> on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof
> (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible,
> what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa
> Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>
>
>
> Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A
> motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric
> car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he
> wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book
> about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in
> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry
>
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything
>
>
>
> -J.
>
>
>
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>
>
> --
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
> twitter: @merle110
>
>
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>
>
>
> --
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
> twitter: @merle110
>
>
>
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