[FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Thu Apr 15 18:12:15 EDT 2021

Pieter, 

You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could use some new blood. 

Bill McCallum is usually there; he da materials guy.  

See Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> 

Nick 

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:44 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Nick,

Simple, because the technology to get copper out of the earth and convert it into a usable form is developing faster than population rise and supplies dwindling.
My argument is that exactly this has been happening for centuries, why would it suddenly stop now? 
Going back to the 1980 bet between Simon and Ehlrig https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager. According to Ehlrig we should have run out of resources long ago, but technological development made a big difference. Another example, the US was on her way to run out of oil a couple of decades ago and is now an exporter of oil. 

I repeat, I'm not saying it WILL happen. All I'm saying is not to assume technological development HAS to end end doom HAS to happen. We just don't know what the future will bring and there are people like David Deutsch that see a very bright future for humanity. 

Back to copper, I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper :

 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon> Julian Simon was a senior fellow at the  <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cato_Institute> Cato Institute and a professor of business and economics. In his book  <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource> The Ultimate Resource 2 (first printed in 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.

Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-39> [39] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-40> [40]

Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper supplies have increased and prices have fallen.

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 21:13, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Pieter,

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst! 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising?  

Which of my assumptions is wrong.  

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper? 

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
"  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Pieter,

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question. 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

N

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com> > wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Merle, and all, 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?  

N

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net <mailto:jofr at cas-group.net> > wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

-J.

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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

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