[FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Sat Apr 17 04:13:35 EDT 2021

@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"

You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said
something it must be true.

And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws
of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.

Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?

a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have
accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C
Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
being crazy"
b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down
or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially
increasing.
c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources
on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can
really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have
many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going
to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also,
carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make
components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very
exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can
restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still
have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny
compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of
concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting
technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's
so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent
development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us
win the war against viruses.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can
strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid
mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy
humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is
invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster,
why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We
certainly are not running out of resources.

On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com> wrote:

> One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just
> because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way
> the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about
> some others.
>
> On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
>
>> @Merle
>> Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no
>> "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary
>> boundaries. "
>> You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has
>> to be qualified.
>> I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of
>> Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
>> David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first
>> deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his
>> arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"
>>
>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper
>>> limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary
>>> boundaries.
>>>
>>> People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find
>>> out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a
>>> replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Pieter,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact
>>>> puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was
>>>> rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not
>>>> expect copper prices to be rising?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Which of my assumptions is wrong.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the
>>>> conductive properties of copper?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>
>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>>> Steenekamp
>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nick,
>>>>
>>>> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?
>>>>
>>>> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm
>>>> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his
>>>> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
>>>> "  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially
>>>>  *infinite reach*: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and
>>>> they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control,
>>>> and achieve.  "
>>>>
>>>> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us.
>>>> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no
>>>> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Pieter,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical
>>>> question.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the
>>>> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> N
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>
>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>>> Steenekamp
>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
>>>> But of course, it's different this time around
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough
>>>> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at
>>>> a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we
>>>> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My
>>>> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Merle, and all,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an
>>>> energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector
>>>> on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof
>>>> (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible,
>>>> what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa
>>>> Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> N
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>
>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.
>>>> A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an
>>>> electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew
>>>> this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a
>>>> book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in
>>>> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -J.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>>
>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>>
>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>>
>>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>>
>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>>
>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>>
>>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>
>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>
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>>>
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>>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @merle110
>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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