[FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Sat Apr 17 09:33:33 EDT 2021

We are not running out of resources.  Nature is abundant--and generous.  We
are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those
resources from the earth.

On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp <
pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:

> @Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"
>
> You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said
> something it must be true.
>
> And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the
> laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.
>
> Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?
>
> a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have
> accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C
> Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
> being crazy"
> b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing
> down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's
> exponentially increasing.
> c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical
> resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free
> energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion
> we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that
> it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you
> wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to
> make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build
> very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we
> can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still
> have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny
> compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of
> concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting
> technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's
> so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent
> development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us
> win the war against viruses.
>
> It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can
> strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid
> mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy
> humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is
> invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster,
> why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We
> certainly are not running out of resources.
>
>
> On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just
>> because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way
>> the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about
>> some others.
>>
>> On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <
>> pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
>>
>>> @Merle
>>> Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are
>>> no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on
>>> planetary boundaries. "
>>> You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it
>>> has to be qualified.
>>> I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of
>>> Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
>>> David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the
>>> first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with
>>> his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"
>>>
>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper
>>>> limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary
>>>> boundaries.
>>>>
>>>> People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find
>>>> out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a
>>>> replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Pieter,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact
>>>>> puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was
>>>>> rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not
>>>>> expect copper prices to be rising?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Which of my assumptions is wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the
>>>>> conductive properties of copper?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>>
>>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>>
>>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>>>> Steenekamp
>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
>>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Nick,
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?
>>>>>
>>>>> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm
>>>>> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his
>>>>> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
>>>>> "  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has
>>>>> potentially  *infinite reach*: we are subject only to the laws of
>>>>> physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually
>>>>> understand, control, and achieve.  "
>>>>>
>>>>> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us.
>>>>> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no
>>>>> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Pieter,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical
>>>>> question.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the
>>>>> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> N
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>>
>>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>>
>>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>>>> Steenekamp
>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
>>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
>>>>> But of course, it's different this time around
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough
>>>>> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at
>>>>> a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we
>>>>> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My
>>>>> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Merle, and all,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have
>>>>> an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar
>>>>> collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the
>>>>> roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely
>>>>> miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of
>>>>> course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents,
>>>>> right?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> N
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Nick Thompson
>>>>>
>>>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>>>
>>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
>>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied
>>>>> energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while
>>>>> an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he
>>>>> knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a
>>>>> book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in
>>>>> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -J.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>>
>>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>>>
>>>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>>
>>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>>>
>>>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>>>>>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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>>>>>
>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>>
>>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>> twitter: @merle110
>>>>
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>>>>
>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>
>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>> twitter: @merle110
>>
>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>

-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110
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